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Featured

Weekly: Melodrama

November 7, 2026November 7, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 6, 2026

Markets

On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026
  • Did Democrats Just Kill ‘New 60/40’?

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Um, Excuse Me, But Your Chips Are Bleeding

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Deus Ex Machina?

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • The Capex Catch-22

    November 3, 2026November 4, 2026

economy

‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Senseless Iran War Triggers BoE Hike, 5% Inflation Warning

    November 5, 2026November 5, 2026
  • Irrepressible

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • In Other News: Scorching ‘Job Changer’ Pay Gains, AI Disruption

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • Someone’s Got Work For You

    November 3, 2026November 4, 2026

Geopolitics

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

China Is About To Report The Slowest Growth In 28 Years – Who’s Excited?

January 20, 2019January 20, 2019

This will be a true test of whether bad news really is “good” news.

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4 Comments on China Is About To Report The Slowest Growth In 28 Years – Who’s Excited?

A Glowing-Orange Trump Delivers Nothing’berder’ Shutdown Plan

January 19, 2019January 20, 2019

Man is told proposal is “non-starter”, tries to float it anyway.

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6 Comments on A Glowing-Orange Trump Delivers Nothing’berder’ Shutdown Plan

Here’s An Hour-Long Interview With Nomura’s Charlie McElligott

January 19, 2019

“…what is important to note here are a number of things.”

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10 Comments on Here’s An Hour-Long Interview With Nomura’s Charlie McElligott

Revisiting The Subverted Perspective: Normalization Parallax

January 19, 2019January 19, 2019

“…the reality which they experience is never fully complete, not because a large part of it eludes them, but because the entire configuration contains a ‘blind spot’.”

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6 Comments on Revisiting The Subverted Perspective: Normalization Parallax

Friday Night Lights: Trump Maybe Won’t Declare National Emergency On Border, Maybe Will On Chinese Telecoms

January 18, 2019January 19, 2019

Never a dull moment.

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4 Comments on Friday Night Lights: Trump Maybe Won’t Declare National Emergency On Border, Maybe Will On Chinese Telecoms

Marko Kolanovic Explains Why ‘QT’ Is Dangerous (Hint: It’s Not The Mechanical Impact)

January 18, 2019

Think: fragility.

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1 Comment on Marko Kolanovic Explains Why ‘QT’ Is Dangerous (Hint: It’s Not The Mechanical Impact)

‘Mean Aversion’: Why Grantham’s GMO Thinks The US Stock Bubble Is Bursting

January 18, 2019January 18, 2019

“…our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions, is to continue to own as little U.S. equity as career risk allows.”

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2 Comments on ‘Mean Aversion’: Why Grantham’s GMO Thinks The US Stock Bubble Is Bursting

Wars Of Attrition.

January 18, 2019October 24, 2021

“…over time the cumulative cost can become very high.”

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3 Comments on Wars Of Attrition.

‘Individual 1’ Really ‘Makes It Happen’ When It Comes To Forcing Lawyers To Lie To Congress About Treason

January 18, 2019October 24, 2021

Meanwhile, on the latest episode of “World’s Dumbest Conspiracies”…

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2 Comments on ‘Individual 1’ Really ‘Makes It Happen’ When It Comes To Forcing Lawyers To Lie To Congress About Treason

A Two-Front War, Tariff Headline Hockey And The Updated ‘SG Swan Chart’

January 17, 2019

The bottom line is that Trump has predictably boxed himself in.

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2 Comments on A Two-Front War, Tariff Headline Hockey And The Updated ‘SG Swan Chart’

‘The Worst Is Yet To Come’: As Federal Workers Tap Retirement Funds, Confidence In Economy Collapses

January 17, 2019

For the GOP, this is an existential crisis.

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4 Comments on ‘The Worst Is Yet To Come’: As Federal Workers Tap Retirement Funds, Confidence In Economy Collapses

Meanwhile: Trump’s Current Lawyer Admits Campaign Collusion, Trump’s Old Lawyer Admits Handing Out Cash In Blue Walmart Bags

January 17, 2019January 18, 2019

So many high crimes and misdemeanors, so little time.

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5 Comments on Meanwhile: Trump’s Current Lawyer Admits Campaign Collusion, Trump’s Old Lawyer Admits Handing Out Cash In Blue Walmart Bags

Mad Greeks.

January 17, 2019October 24, 2021

“However, a move down through 2575 in SPX”…

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2 Comments on Mad Greeks.

Morgan Stanley Delivers Epic Faceplant, FICC Plunges 30%

January 17, 2019January 17, 2019

Juuust a bit outside.

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Leave a Comment on Morgan Stanley Delivers Epic Faceplant, FICC Plunges 30%

Apple’s Main Chipmaker Delivers Dour Outlook, Underscoring Smartphone Worries, Growth Concerns

January 17, 2019January 17, 2019

In case you needed any more evidence…

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1 Comment on Apple’s Main Chipmaker Delivers Dour Outlook, Underscoring Smartphone Worries, Growth Concerns

‘Good’ Trump Isn’t Coming Back, Get Used To ‘Bad’ Trump, One Bank Warns

January 16, 2019October 24, 2021

“The author does not believe markets will come back to the ‘good’ Trump story anytime soon.”

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10 Comments on ‘Good’ Trump Isn’t Coming Back, Get Used To ‘Bad’ Trump, One Bank Warns

Marko Kolanovic Explains The ‘Liquidity-Volatility-Flows Feedback Loop’

January 16, 2019January 8, 2022

“… at times of high volatility, the VIX is almost the sole driver of market
liquidity.”

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3 Comments on Marko Kolanovic Explains The ‘Liquidity-Volatility-Flows Feedback Loop’

Narrative Check: Brexit, Trump, China Stimulus And An Update On Charlie’s CTA Model

January 16, 2019

Ok, it’s time for “narrative” check – as it were.

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1 Comment on Narrative Check: Brexit, Trump, China Stimulus And An Update On Charlie’s CTA Model

Shutdown Shenanigans: Kevin Hassett Staffer Becomes Uber Driver, IRS Confronts Tax Overhaul With Skeleton Crew

January 16, 2019January 18, 2019

“…[we] found that yeah, the damage is a little bit worse.”

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6 Comments on Shutdown Shenanigans: Kevin Hassett Staffer Becomes Uber Driver, IRS Confronts Tax Overhaul With Skeleton Crew

Goldman Beats, Market Happy With Advisory Blowout Despite FICC Fail

January 16, 2019January 16, 2019

Lots to digest here, but it looks like the knee-jerk is to “buy”.

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4 Comments on Goldman Beats, Market Happy With Advisory Blowout Despite FICC Fail

Bank Of America Surges As Market Ignores Latest FICC Miss

January 16, 2019October 24, 2021

Benefit of the doubt?

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If Stock Selloff Comes Back, Rich People May Buy Fewer Watches, ‘Pleasure Boats’, Goldman Warns

January 15, 2019October 24, 2021

Bummer.

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1 Comment on If Stock Selloff Comes Back, Rich People May Buy Fewer Watches, ‘Pleasure Boats’, Goldman Warns

Kraft Heinz To Rescue Furloughed Workers With Free Mac & Cheese As MAGA Promise Keeps Delivering

January 15, 2019October 24, 2021

“Make people rely on charity mac & cheese again!”

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Can America Trust William Barr To Make Sure Mayor McCheese Doesn’t Get Away With Treason? Let’s Ask Him!

January 15, 2019January 16, 2019

Yes. No. It depends.

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4 Comments on Can America Trust William Barr To Make Sure Mayor McCheese Doesn’t Get Away With Treason? Let’s Ask Him!

‘Bearish Positioning = Rally’: BofAML Fund Manager Survey Shows ‘Macro Crash’, ‘Inflection Point’

January 15, 2019January 15, 2019

And without further ado…

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Sophia Don’t Fail Me Now: One Bank Worries ‘Algo Rally’ Will ‘Run Out Of Steam’

January 15, 2019January 15, 2019

Who knows – maybe ask Sophia.

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3 Comments on Sophia Don’t Fail Me Now: One Bank Worries ‘Algo Rally’ Will ‘Run Out Of Steam’

JPMorgan Disappoints: FICC Fail Drives First Profit Miss In 15 Quarters

January 15, 2019January 15, 2019

“Challenging market conditions.”

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5 Comments on JPMorgan Disappoints: FICC Fail Drives First Profit Miss In 15 Quarters

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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