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Featured

Weekly: Melodrama

November 7, 2026November 7, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 6, 2026

Markets

On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026
  • Did Democrats Just Kill ‘New 60/40’?

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Um, Excuse Me, But Your Chips Are Bleeding

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Deus Ex Machina?

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • The Capex Catch-22

    November 3, 2026November 4, 2026

economy

‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Senseless Iran War Triggers BoE Hike, 5% Inflation Warning

    November 5, 2026November 5, 2026
  • Irrepressible

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • In Other News: Scorching ‘Job Changer’ Pay Gains, AI Disruption

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • Someone’s Got Work For You

    November 3, 2026November 4, 2026

Geopolitics

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Surprise: China Tips More Stimulus As Economy Falters

January 15, 2019January 15, 2019

We’ll see what the half-life on this is.

Read More

3 Comments on Surprise: China Tips More Stimulus As Economy Falters

Need Another Excuse To Short The Dollar? CTAs’ Extrapolated Longs Will Do!

January 14, 2019

Now if only Trump would let the government open…

Read More

3 Comments on Need Another Excuse To Short The Dollar? CTAs’ Extrapolated Longs Will Do!

Ok, Sure! I’ll Take A Look At That Fed MBS Runoff Vs. S&P Returns Note…

January 14, 2019January 14, 2019

Let’s do some math-ing.

Read More

1 Comment on Ok, Sure! I’ll Take A Look At That Fed MBS Runoff Vs. S&P Returns Note…

Local Geriatric Denies He Works For Russia, Will Serve College Kids ‘Burger Kings’ And ‘Some Pizza’

January 14, 2019January 15, 2019

“I never worked for Russia.”

Read More

15 Comments on Local Geriatric Denies He Works For Russia, Will Serve College Kids ‘Burger Kings’ And ‘Some Pizza’

Nomura’s McElligott Weighs In On China, Stocks And Reflation Skepticism

January 14, 2019

Predictably, markets start the new week torn.

Read More

1 Comment on Nomura’s McElligott Weighs In On China, Stocks And Reflation Skepticism

World Reacts To China’s December Trade Fumble

January 14, 2019January 14, 2019

This will likely get worse before it gets better.

Read More

1 Comment on World Reacts To China’s December Trade Fumble

China’s December Trade Data Is, Well, Not Great…

January 13, 2019January 13, 2019

“Juuust a bit outside.” 

Read More

1 Comment on China’s December Trade Data Is, Well, Not Great…

Standard Indices, The Madness Of Crowds And The Case For Equal-Weighting

January 13, 2019January 13, 2019

“Herein lies the problem with market based indices. They are subject to the madness of crowds.”

Read More

5 Comments on Standard Indices, The Madness Of Crowds And The Case For Equal-Weighting

Politics As Usual: Full Week Ahead Preview

January 13, 2019October 24, 2021

Risk on, but for how long?

Read More

oil4 Comments on Politics As Usual: Full Week Ahead Preview

‘Noise’: One Bank’s Take On US Politics In 2019

January 13, 2019January 13, 2019

The political landscape stateside is a bit fraught right now – maybe you noticed.

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3 Comments on ‘Noise’: One Bank’s Take On US Politics In 2019

Putin, Pirro And Pandemonium: Trump Clings To Power As Treason Talk Gets Louder

January 13, 2019October 26, 2021

“It’s the most insulting thing I’ve ever been asked.”

Read More

18 Comments on Putin, Pirro And Pandemonium: Trump Clings To Power As Treason Talk Gets Louder

Damned If They Do, Damned If They Don’t: Fed May Be Boxed In On Balance Sheet

January 12, 2019October 24, 2021

A lot to ponder.

Read More

7 Comments on Damned If They Do, Damned If They Don’t: Fed May Be Boxed In On Balance Sheet

No Biggie, But Turns Out F.B.I. Opened A Secret Probe To See If Trump Is A Literal Russian Agent

January 12, 2019October 26, 2021

Do take a moment to appreciate the gravity of this.

Read More

16 Comments on No Biggie, But Turns Out F.B.I. Opened A Secret Probe To See If Trump Is A Literal Russian Agent

Trump’s Shutdown Is Now Longest In US History – Are We ‘Great Again’ Yet?

January 12, 2019January 18, 2019

Make shutdowns long again.

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5 Comments on Trump’s Shutdown Is Now Longest In US History – Are We ‘Great Again’ Yet?

Goldman Warns On S&P Earnings Downside From Deteriorating Macro Outlook

January 11, 2019

The coming “litmus test”.

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Leave a Comment on Goldman Warns On S&P Earnings Downside From Deteriorating Macro Outlook

Increasingly, The Market Believes The ‘State Of Exception’ Has Become Permanent

January 11, 2019

A new status quo.

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6 Comments on Increasingly, The Market Believes The ‘State Of Exception’ Has Become Permanent

Dissecting The ‘Incredible’ Junk Rally And The Case For A 24-Pound Bucket Of Mac-&-Cheese

January 11, 2019

Frantic rallies, tactical bounces and out of stock emergency hedges.

Read More

3 Comments on Dissecting The ‘Incredible’ Junk Rally And The Case For A 24-Pound Bucket Of Mac-&-Cheese

Shutdown Will Cost US Economy More Than Trump’s Wall Within 2 Weeks

January 11, 2019January 18, 2019

And for what?

Read More

6 Comments on Shutdown Will Cost US Economy More Than Trump’s Wall Within 2 Weeks

Of Dollars And Yuan.

January 11, 2019January 11, 2019

What kind of dollar weakness are you, anyway?

Read More

Leave a Comment on Of Dollars And Yuan.

Going ‘Ex Liquidity’ And A Macabre Celebration At TINA’s Funeral

January 10, 2019

“…cash ’embarrassed’ so many asset classes in 2018.”

Read More

1 Comment on Going ‘Ex Liquidity’ And A Macabre Celebration At TINA’s Funeral

‘Retail Flush’, Two Ways

January 10, 2019

This is the vaunted “wealth effect” – only in reverse.

Read More

3 Comments on ‘Retail Flush’, Two Ways

It’s All Fun And Games Until Someone Asks About The Balance Sheet

January 10, 2019January 10, 2019

Powell gave the market an inch, and now it wants a mile. 

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3 Comments on It’s All Fun And Games Until Someone Asks About The Balance Sheet

Local Septuagenarian Berates ‘Crazy Young People’ On Lawn, Promises To Build 2,000-Mile-Long Invisible Steel Wall To Prevent Gang Invasion

January 10, 2019January 11, 2019

“… they don’t give a damn about gang members stabbing people and cutting people up.” 

Read More

26 Comments on Local Septuagenarian Berates ‘Crazy Young People’ On Lawn, Promises To Build 2,000-Mile-Long Invisible Steel Wall To Prevent Gang Invasion

Shiny Doorstops Great Again! Goldman Lifts Gold Price Target

January 10, 2019January 10, 2019

“Worth its weight in”…

Read More

6 Comments on Shiny Doorstops Great Again! Goldman Lifts Gold Price Target

Albert Edwards Says It’s Too Late For Fed To Save Stocks, While One Strategist Delivers Curve Causality Counterpoint

January 10, 2019January 10, 2019

“If we are indeed nearing the point where the Fed stops tightening (both QT and Fed Funds), should this offer investors confidence”?

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4 Comments on Albert Edwards Says It’s Too Late For Fed To Save Stocks, While One Strategist Delivers Curve Causality Counterpoint

What Caused The Q4 Stock Market Crash? Let’s Ask The News Team!

January 9, 2019October 24, 2021

Quantifying the contribution of various factors to the selloff via a news-based event-study approach.

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2 Comments on What Caused The Q4 Stock Market Crash? Let’s Ask The News Team!

Why One Trader Became A Fed-Watcher

January 9, 2019January 9, 2019

“Predicting Powell’s moves in the upcoming quarters will mean more than trying to come up with a fair value for financial assets.”

Read More

6 Comments on Why One Trader Became A Fed-Watcher

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party
  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party
  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party
  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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