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Featured

Weekly: Melodrama

November 7, 2026November 7, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 6, 2026

Markets

On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026
  • Did Democrats Just Kill ‘New 60/40’?

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Um, Excuse Me, But Your Chips Are Bleeding

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Deus Ex Machina?

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • The Capex Catch-22

    November 3, 2026November 4, 2026

economy

‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Senseless Iran War Triggers BoE Hike, 5% Inflation Warning

    November 5, 2026November 5, 2026
  • Irrepressible

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • In Other News: Scorching ‘Job Changer’ Pay Gains, AI Disruption

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • Someone’s Got Work For You

    November 3, 2026November 4, 2026

Geopolitics

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Andrew McCabe Has Seen Things You Wouldn’t Even Believe, Ok?

February 18, 2019February 18, 2019

“Not good, not good.” 

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5 Comments on Andrew McCabe Has Seen Things You Wouldn’t Even Believe, Ok?

State Of Emergency: Full Week Ahead Preview

February 17, 2019

Trade, car tariffs and Fed minutes.

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1 Comment on State Of Emergency: Full Week Ahead Preview

The Russia ‘Sanctions Bill From Hell’ Is Back – Does It Matter?

February 17, 2019

DASKA returns.

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3 Comments on The Russia ‘Sanctions Bill From Hell’ Is Back – Does It Matter?

Mike Pence Went On World Tour This Week – It Didn’t Go Well

February 17, 2019October 26, 2021

Remember how the world was “starting to respect America again”?

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18 Comments on Mike Pence Went On World Tour This Week – It Didn’t Go Well

‘The Negative Tail Has Become Fatter’: Extreme Outcomes, Policy And Populism

February 16, 2019

That goes for markets and society more generally.

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4 Comments on ‘The Negative Tail Has Become Fatter’: Extreme Outcomes, Policy And Populism

Unlike Morgan Stanley, Goldman Isn’t Too Worried About An Earnings Recession

February 16, 2019October 26, 2021

Hockey stick inflections, and such.

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‘Fix The Situation Immediately’: Trump, Pompeo Wade Into Dark Waters With Saudis On Khashoggi, Yemen

February 16, 2019February 17, 2019

“The administration’s response… makes a mockery of the United States’ commitment to human rights.”

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7 Comments on ‘Fix The Situation Immediately’: Trump, Pompeo Wade Into Dark Waters With Saudis On Khashoggi, Yemen

‘A Negative Outcome On Any Of These Fronts Likely Spells The End Of Hikes’: Another Bank Slashes Fed Outlook

February 15, 2019February 15, 2019

The risks are myriad – the dangers clear and present.

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1 Comment on ‘A Negative Outcome On Any Of These Fronts Likely Spells The End Of Hikes’: Another Bank Slashes Fed Outlook

A 4.64 Trillion Yuan Tidal Wave Of Credit Growth – Let’s Discuss

February 15, 2019October 26, 2021

Is the transmission channel “unclogged”?

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In The Rose Garden: Meltdown

February 15, 2019February 16, 2019

Move over, Charlottesville presser…

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17 Comments on In The Rose Garden: Meltdown

‘Trade Tensions Have Not Disappeared’, Goldman Warns

February 15, 2019October 26, 2021

Curb your enthusiasm?

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In Case Of Faux National Emergency, Break Constitution

February 15, 2019February 15, 2019

“Normally, any other time, you’d say it’s a no-brainer”…

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4 Comments on In Case Of Faux National Emergency, Break Constitution

US, China Will Hold Do-Over Trade Talks In Washington As Einsteinian Insanity Takes Hold

February 15, 2019October 26, 2021

“I hope you keep up the good work.”

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2 Comments on US, China Will Hold Do-Over Trade Talks In Washington As Einsteinian Insanity Takes Hold

Why One Bank Is ‘Putting The Fed On Hold’

February 14, 2019

“…we are eliminating the two hikes we had penciled in this year.”

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One Trader Asks: ‘Who’s Buying Gold?’

February 14, 2019February 14, 2019

“I’ll warn you right off the bat”…

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3 Comments on One Trader Asks: ‘Who’s Buying Gold?’

Trump Will Have Have His ‘National Emergency’ After All

February 14, 2019February 15, 2019

Nancy Pelosi has already said she may file a legal challenge.

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6 Comments on Trump Will Have Have His ‘National Emergency’ After All

Marko Kolanovic: ‘Calls For A 1929-Style Recession Are Now Getting Quieter’

February 14, 2019January 8, 2022

Of V-shaped bounces and low positioning.

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9 Comments on Marko Kolanovic: ‘Calls For A 1929-Style Recession Are Now Getting Quieter’

Larry Kudlow Opens His ‘Money Mouth’, Out Come ‘Glitches’

February 14, 2019October 26, 2021

And lies. We also think lies.

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8 Comments on Larry Kudlow Opens His ‘Money Mouth’, Out Come ‘Glitches’

If The Fed Was Looking For An Excuse To Stay ‘Patient’, This Disastrous Retail Sales Print Will Work!

February 14, 2019February 14, 2019

Bad news is probably just bad news in this case.

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2 Comments on If The Fed Was Looking For An Excuse To Stay ‘Patient’, This Disastrous Retail Sales Print Will Work!

Andrew McCabe Details FBI Probe Of Trump, 25th Amendment Meetings In Bombshell 60 Minutes Interview

February 14, 2019February 14, 2019

“…the highest levels of American law enforcement were trying to figure out what to do with the president.”

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6 Comments on Andrew McCabe Details FBI Probe Of Trump, 25th Amendment Meetings In Bombshell 60 Minutes Interview

Congrats, Germany: You Avoided A Recession

February 14, 2019February 14, 2019

And that’s pretty much where the good news stops.

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1 Comment on Congrats, Germany: You Avoided A Recession

China Reports Ostensibly Decent Trade Data For January – Now Commence The Derision

February 13, 2019February 14, 2019

This should serve its purpose while the trade talks continue.

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4 Comments on China Reports Ostensibly Decent Trade Data For January – Now Commence The Derision

Larry Kudlow Would Never Lie To You, So That Horrific Deficit Number Must Be Wrong

February 13, 2019February 13, 2019

“…the deficit is coming down and it’s coming down rapidly.”

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31 Comments on Larry Kudlow Would Never Lie To You, So That Horrific Deficit Number Must Be Wrong

FEMA’s Brock Long, Exhausted From Too Much Winning, Quits

February 13, 2019February 13, 2019

“…it is time for me to go home.”

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2 Comments on FEMA’s Brock Long, Exhausted From Too Much Winning, Quits

Trump ‘Looks For Landmines’ In Shutdown Deal, Says Maybe El Chapo Will Pay For Border Wall

February 13, 2019February 13, 2019

“… it’s been known to happen before to people.”

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1 Comment on Trump ‘Looks For Landmines’ In Shutdown Deal, Says Maybe El Chapo Will Pay For Border Wall

The Evolution Of Cross-Asset Vol. Spikes And July 6, 2021, As Recession D-Day

February 13, 2019

It starts with stocks…

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1 Comment on The Evolution Of Cross-Asset Vol. Spikes And July 6, 2021, As Recession D-Day

Dear Sweden: ‘Slightly Hawkish’ Doesn’t Work Right Now

February 13, 2019October 26, 2021

Remember, “hawkish” is a highly relative term – especially in light of recent events.

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Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party
  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party
  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party
  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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