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Featured

Weekly: Melodrama

November 7, 2026November 7, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 6, 2026

Markets

On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026
  • Did Democrats Just Kill ‘New 60/40’?

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Um, Excuse Me, But Your Chips Are Bleeding

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Deus Ex Machina?

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • The Capex Catch-22

    November 3, 2026November 4, 2026

economy

‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Senseless Iran War Triggers BoE Hike, 5% Inflation Warning

    November 5, 2026November 5, 2026
  • Irrepressible

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • In Other News: Scorching ‘Job Changer’ Pay Gains, AI Disruption

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • Someone’s Got Work For You

    November 3, 2026November 4, 2026

Geopolitics

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Hope Springs Eternal As Shutdown Risk Fades, Xi To Meet Lighthizer, Mnuchin

February 13, 2019February 13, 2019

“Please Mr. President”…

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Nomura’s McElligott Talks Tuesday Stock ‘Grab-In’, Volatility, QT And More

February 12, 2019February 12, 2019

Around the cross asset universe in 1,000 words.

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2 Comments on Nomura’s McElligott Talks Tuesday Stock ‘Grab-In’, Volatility, QT And More

Morgan’s Mike Wilson Explains The ‘Simple’ Reason The Fed Can’t Save Stocks

February 12, 2019

“…we suspect that neither is a bullish signal for equities.”

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3 Comments on Morgan’s Mike Wilson Explains The ‘Simple’ Reason The Fed Can’t Save Stocks

Why One Trader Is Putting On The Same Trade That Sank Bill Gross

February 12, 2019February 12, 2019

“It’s nothing personal Bill.”

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6 Comments on Why One Trader Is Putting On The Same Trade That Sank Bill Gross

Trump ‘Not Happy’ With Bipartisan Shutdown Deal, May ‘Let China Slide’ On Trade Deadline

February 12, 2019February 13, 2019

“…it’s all gonna happen where we’re gonna build a beautiful, big strong wall.”

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9 Comments on Trump ‘Not Happy’ With Bipartisan Shutdown Deal, May ‘Let China Slide’ On Trade Deadline

The World Has A New ‘Most Crowded Trade’ – And The Same ‘Biggest Tail Risk’

February 12, 2019

For the first time in survey history…

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2 Comments on The World Has A New ‘Most Crowded Trade’ – And The Same ‘Biggest Tail Risk’

‘Big Fat Buyers’ Strike’: Global Equity Allocations Dive In Latest Edition Of Popular Survey

February 12, 2019

This, despite the best start to a year for stocks since 1987.

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Make Small Businesses Nervous Again! Optimism Index Plunges Most In 43 Months On Shutdown Woes

February 12, 2019February 12, 2019

Survey says!

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Is Tuesday The Day The Dollar Snaps Its Best Rally Since 2016?

February 12, 2019February 12, 2019

…there’s still “not much else to like”, though.

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Lawmakers Reach Deal To Avert Shutdown, Includes $1.375 Billion For Border Barriers

February 11, 2019February 12, 2019

“We think so, we hope so.”

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3 Comments on Lawmakers Reach Deal To Avert Shutdown, Includes $1.375 Billion For Border Barriers

BTFD Nostalgia: YTD Volatility Drop Among Largest Since 1928

February 11, 2019February 11, 2019

A sight for sore eyes.

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Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson: ‘The Earnings Recession Is Here’

February 11, 2019February 11, 2019

“…volatility will likely rise meaningfully.”

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1 Comment on Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson: ‘The Earnings Recession Is Here’

One Bank ‘Understands Why Investors Are Turning More Cautious’ After Blockbuster January

February 11, 2019February 11, 2019

If you’re not feeling particularly inspired about risk assets to start the week, you’ll be forgiven.

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‘Chocolate Cake Diplomacy’ To The Rescue?

February 11, 2019February 11, 2019

“Progress” is in the eye of the beholder.

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1 Comment on ‘Chocolate Cake Diplomacy’ To The Rescue?

Bondholders Aren’t Getting Paid Again In China

February 11, 2019February 11, 2019

Make Chinese borrowers default again.

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Impasse, 3 Ways: Full Week Ahead Preview

February 10, 2019February 11, 2019

Stalemates, everywhere.

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‘He’s Either Complying With The Law Or He’s Breaking It’: Trump’s Coverup Of Khashoggi Murder Pushes Legal Boundaries

February 10, 2019February 10, 2019

“The law is clear.”

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3 Comments on ‘He’s Either Complying With The Law Or He’s Breaking It’: Trump’s Coverup Of Khashoggi Murder Pushes Legal Boundaries

Debt Ceiling D-Day

February 10, 2019October 26, 2021

Fair warning.

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8 Comments on Debt Ceiling D-Day

Welcome To Campaign 2020: Warren Makes It Official, Trump Maybe-Mocks Trail Of Tears

February 9, 2019October 26, 2021

“See you on the TRAIL”.

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7 Comments on Welcome To Campaign 2020: Warren Makes It Official, Trump Maybe-Mocks Trail Of Tears

Paul Revere And The Recession Narrative

February 9, 2019February 9, 2019

“The recession is coming, the recession is coming!”

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4 Comments on Paul Revere And The Recession Narrative

Earnings Recession Ahoy?

February 9, 2019February 9, 2019

Paging Mike Wilson: it looks like that earnings recession call might prove prescient.

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7 Comments on Earnings Recession Ahoy?

Bears Resurface As Recession Fears Linger, Dollar Puzzle Emerges

February 8, 2019

The mood has soured.

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1 Comment on Bears Resurface As Recession Fears Linger, Dollar Puzzle Emerges

Matt Whitaker Doesn’t Know What You Mean By ‘Yes Or No?’

February 8, 2019February 9, 2019

Matt Whitaker testified on Capitol Hill Friday and predictably, it was painful to watch.

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8 Comments on Matt Whitaker Doesn’t Know What You Mean By ‘Yes Or No?’

Chasing The Dragon: A ‘Blink For The Ages’

February 8, 2019

An “epic” reversal and the limits of “string pushing.”

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3 Comments on Chasing The Dragon: A ‘Blink For The Ages’

The Sum Of All Fears: What Happens If All The Tail Risks Are Realized?

February 8, 2019October 26, 2021

“… a realized turn for the worse.”

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5 Comments on The Sum Of All Fears: What Happens If All The Tail Risks Are Realized?

‘I’ll Use A Bullet On Him’: US Intercepts Reveal Saudi Crown Prince Plotting Khashoggi Murder

February 7, 2019February 8, 2019

The timing leaves something to be desired if you’re the White House.

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3 Comments on ‘I’ll Use A Bullet On Him’: US Intercepts Reveal Saudi Crown Prince Plotting Khashoggi Murder

Democrats To Subpoena Trump Tower Phone Records

February 7, 2019February 7, 2019

Adam Schiff moves fast.

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3 Comments on Democrats To Subpoena Trump Tower Phone Records

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party
  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party
  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party
  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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