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Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 4, 2026
  • The Capex Catch-22

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Someone’s Got Work For You

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026

Markets

Have The Hyper-Scalers Lost Their Minds?

November 2, 2026November 4, 2026
  • Apple Sets A Bunch Of Records. Misses In China

    November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Sell-Side Sarcasm: New And Improved!

    November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

    October 31, 2026November 2, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026November 2, 2026

economy

Debbie Downers Amid The Renaissance

November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

    November 1, 2026November 2, 2026
  • ‘Remains Elevated’

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Geopolitics

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

China’s Yuan Fixes Through 7 For First Time Since 2008, While July Trade Data Tops Estimates

August 7, 2019November 18, 2021

Paradoxically, this could serve as something of a pressure valve.

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2 Comments on China’s Yuan Fixes Through 7 For First Time Since 2008, While July Trade Data Tops Estimates

After Wall Street’s Biggest Comeback Of 2019, All Eyes Turn To The Chinese Yuan

August 7, 2019August 7, 2019

“Playing with fire”.

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5 Comments on After Wall Street’s Biggest Comeback Of 2019, All Eyes Turn To The Chinese Yuan

Pimco: ‘It’s No Longer Absurd To Think US Treasury Yields Could Go Negative’

August 7, 2019August 7, 2019

“US Treasuries – which many investors view as the ultimate ‘safe haven’ apart from gold – may be no exception”.

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2 Comments on Pimco: ‘It’s No Longer Absurd To Think US Treasury Yields Could Go Negative’

US Releases Interim Rule Banning Huawei, Hikvision, Others From Government Contracts

August 7, 2019August 7, 2019

“Contractors have said they are confused”.

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Leave a Comment on US Releases Interim Rule Banning Huawei, Hikvision, Others From Government Contracts

Oil Spill! Crude Collapses A Day After Sliding Into Another Bear Market

August 7, 2019August 7, 2019

Don’t forget that lurking in the background is an “uber-bearish” scenario.

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oil, OPEC1 Comment on Oil Spill! Crude Collapses A Day After Sliding Into Another Bear Market

Key Section Of Yield Curve Crashes To 2007 Low Amid Biggest 5-Day Move In 10s In 8 Years

August 7, 2019August 7, 2019

To quote Sesame Street: “Wednesday was brought to you by the letter ‘R'”.

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3 Comments on Key Section Of Yield Curve Crashes To 2007 Low Amid Biggest 5-Day Move In 10s In 8 Years

Nomura’s McElligott: Stocks ‘Quite Tense’, Systematic Selling Likely Not Clear Amid ‘Recession Pricing’ In Bonds

August 7, 2019August 7, 2019

Hot takes, coming right up.

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1 Comment on Nomura’s McElligott: Stocks ‘Quite Tense’, Systematic Selling Likely Not Clear Amid ‘Recession Pricing’ In Bonds

Bloodbath Resumes On Wall Street As Bonds Presage ‘Armageddon’

August 7, 2019August 7, 2019

The selling wasn’t over.

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4 Comments on Bloodbath Resumes On Wall Street As Bonds Presage ‘Armageddon’

Macro Tourist Delivers A 1987 Flashback

August 7, 2019August 7, 2019

“I continue to be concerned about risk assets”.

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1 Comment on Macro Tourist Delivers A 1987 Flashback

Trump Calls The Fed ‘Incompetent’, Demands ‘Bigger, Faster’ Rate Cuts ‘NOW’

August 7, 2019August 7, 2019

“Incompetence is a terrible thing to watch”.

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8 Comments on Trump Calls The Fed ‘Incompetent’, Demands ‘Bigger, Faster’ Rate Cuts ‘NOW’

Race To The Bottom Intensifies As Trio Of Surprise Rate Cuts Ripple Across Markets

August 7, 2019August 7, 2019

There’s just no other way to put it. 

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Leave a Comment on Race To The Bottom Intensifies As Trio Of Surprise Rate Cuts Ripple Across Markets

German Industrial Production Crashes Most In A Decade, ‘Dooming’ Economy

August 7, 2019August 7, 2019

That’s “pretty awful”.

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2 Comments on German Industrial Production Crashes Most In A Decade, ‘Dooming’ Economy

‘Shocking’ New Zealand Rate Cut Roils Currency Markets

August 6, 2019August 6, 2019

Anyone who doubted RBNZ’s willingness to deliver on Wednesday was disabused of their skepticism.

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1 Comment on ‘Shocking’ New Zealand Rate Cut Roils Currency Markets

The VIX Did Something Monday It’s Only Done 5 Other Times – And That’s Not Even The Punchline

August 6, 2019

A simple read: Markets are becoming more fragile all the time.

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1 Comment on The VIX Did Something Monday It’s Only Done 5 Other Times – And That’s Not Even The Punchline

Nervous Traders Fear New Wave Of Selling As Quant Questions Linger

August 6, 2019August 7, 2019

Is it over?

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1 Comment on Nervous Traders Fear New Wave Of Selling As Quant Questions Linger

Perfect Storm: And The World’s New Worst Performing Stock Market Is…

August 6, 2019August 6, 2019

On the bright side…

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Leave a Comment on Perfect Storm: And The World’s New Worst Performing Stock Market Is…

‘Their Lies Are Bubbles Flooding The US Stock Market’: The Infamous Hu Xijin Mocks Larry Kudlow, CNBC

August 6, 2019

And that’s not all Hu “knows”.

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3 Comments on ‘Their Lies Are Bubbles Flooding The US Stock Market’: The Infamous Hu Xijin Mocks Larry Kudlow, CNBC

Future Fed Chair Jim Bullard Not Sure He Can Cut Rates Fast Enough To Keep Up With Trump’s Tweets

August 6, 2019

The White House wants a Fed chair who will play offense.

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1 Comment on Future Fed Chair Jim Bullard Not Sure He Can Cut Rates Fast Enough To Keep Up With Trump’s Tweets

Macro Tourist Presents: The Most Important Chart In The World

August 6, 2019August 6, 2019

“The question is whether Powell has started a global economic slowdown that he won’t be able to stop.”

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1 Comment on Macro Tourist Presents: The Most Important Chart In The World

‘After 700+ Rate Cuts And $10 Trillion In Liquidity’, Quantitative Failure Now Tops The Worry List

August 6, 2019August 6, 2019

This time around, Wonderland will be an even stranger place.

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2 Comments on ‘After 700+ Rate Cuts And $10 Trillion In Liquidity’, Quantitative Failure Now Tops The Worry List

As PBoC Warns Of ‘Market Chaos’, Here’s What’s Next For Chinese Monetary Policy

August 6, 2019August 6, 2019

This is one incredible juggling act.

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2 Comments on As PBoC Warns Of ‘Market Chaos’, Here’s What’s Next For Chinese Monetary Policy

Don’t Look Now, But Junk Bond Spreads Just Blew Out The Most In 12 Years

August 6, 2019

Well, that’s not great news.

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2 Comments on Don’t Look Now, But Junk Bond Spreads Just Blew Out The Most In 12 Years

Falling Knife Catchers Eye Hong Kong As Stocks Log Worst Losing Streak Since 1984

August 6, 2019

Now then…

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1 Comment on Falling Knife Catchers Eye Hong Kong As Stocks Log Worst Losing Streak Since 1984

‘For The Cuts To Stop, Fed Will Have To Brave Trump, Bond Market’: Goldman Adds Third Cut To Fed Call

August 6, 2019August 6, 2019

Easier said than done.

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1 Comment on ‘For The Cuts To Stop, Fed Will Have To Brave Trump, Bond Market’: Goldman Adds Third Cut To Fed Call

Breaking Point Nears As Hang Seng, Topix Erase 2019 Gains Before PBoC Steps In With Strong Fix

August 5, 2019

This is why things need to stabilize in a hurry.

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1 Comment on Breaking Point Nears As Hang Seng, Topix Erase 2019 Gains Before PBoC Steps In With Strong Fix

Volcker, Greenspan, Yellen, Bernanke Demand Fed Independence Amid White House Attacks

August 5, 2019August 5, 2019

“We are united in our conviction”.

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9 Comments on Volcker, Greenspan, Yellen, Bernanke Demand Fed Independence Amid White House Attacks

It’s All-Out War As Steve Mnuchin’s Treasury Designates China A Currency Manipulator

August 5, 2019August 6, 2019

This is becoming a “sum of all fears” scenario.

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14 Comments on It’s All-Out War As Steve Mnuchin’s Treasury Designates China A Currency Manipulator

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • therealheisenberg on Tsunami
  • Blognonymous on Tsunami
  • derek on Let’s Talk Blue Waves
  • Soutomaxwell on The Capex Catch-22

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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