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fed fomc S&P 500

One Bank Says A Dovish Fed Is Going To ‘Place A Floor Under The Stock Market’

So you know, "fingers crossed" I guess if you're long. 

Well then, Wells Fargo’s Chris Harvey is going to go ahead and make a pretty bold call ahead of the Fed, although I’m not entirely sure he meant for it to be as bold as it comes across.

Obviously, the consensus is that this hike is going to have a hawkish spin on it and at least a couple of folks (e.g. Goldman and BNP) think the median 2018 dot could shift higher. Pretty much everyone expects an upgrade to the econ forecasts in the SEP although the statement could reflect a more measured tone in light of some recent disappointments on the data front and downgrades to GDP tracking estimates following the retail sales disappointment.

The above-mentioned Chris Harvey thinks Powell is going to spin this dovish and that’s going to be bullish for stocks. Here are some excerpts from a note dated Tuesday:

Now that the market believes the Fed will be more Hawkish, we’re leaning Dovish (Exhibit 1).

fed

The incrementals such as Retail Sales, CPI, Atlanta Fed and credit spreads have not been Hawkish (Exhibit 2-4).

Spreads

RollingOver

In additional, we think Powell needs to keep as much optionality as possible. He can pivot with 3 but not from 4.

What does that mean more stocks? Well Harvey is pretty unequivocal about that, writing that “a slightly more Dovish Fed will not only place a floor under the stock market but also help walk equities higher in the coming weeks” and that, in turn, will mean “it’s back to the equity-friendly ‘low for longer’ environment.”

And he goes further than that to suggest that “in all likelihood, [this is] a plus for short volatility strategies and almost every investment style other than Value.”

So you know, “fingers crossed” I guess if you’re long.

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3 comments on “One Bank Says A Dovish Fed Is Going To ‘Place A Floor Under The Stock Market’

  1. The long and short of it is just that. Those who are looking for “bidness” as usual will shout dovish and the shorty’s will start the “beginning of the end is nigh”. It’s all manipulated fake move the numbers to create the illusion of control anyway. The fu*king thing is so out of control already and sooner or later the whole market worldwide will correct itself like it or not.

    All of the “play-ers are moving the same fake numbers around hiding the fact that their way, way over-leveraged debt is somehow helpful and good for everybody. Sure, “gimme some more of that ruination” for my portfolio. Folks run, sprint, leave, get away as far away from this toxic lying infested bunch of con-people now. Get out of as much debt as you possibly can cash up and wait for the fall, it will be massive. Who is going to bail out this gigantic fraud this time, fool, we are.

    The Fed should be put out of it’s dying, lying misery, it “is a tool to steal”, period.

  2. i got a lot more than my fingers crossed–its hell maintaining 25% hedge but these times call for it i think. no one will see it coming–it will just happen. 2/3 days of 1000 point drop.
    so much for value/price discovery and a normal market.
    good luck all.
    long energy, rare earth, short usd and wbk for a good while now.
    sb

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