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Fed Signals 2 More Hikes In 2018: Dot Plot, Projections, Statement, Analysis

FED RAISES RATES QUARTER POINT, SIGNALS TWO MORE HIKES IN 2018 FED ESTIMATES SHOW STEEPER PATH FOR RATE INCREASES IN 2019-20 FED SAYS `ECONOMIC OUTLOOK HAS STRENGTHENED IN RECENT MONTHS' FED REPEATS NEAR-TERM RISKS `APPEAR ROUGHLY BALANCED'

Ok, here comes the main event. There's been so much written about this over the past two weeks that it would be impossible to try and summarize it (some recent posts here and here and here), but the bottom line is that all eyes are first and foremost on the median 2018 dot (four or three?). Then there's the growth outlook in the SEP (upward revision and by how much?) and the unemployment forecast (downward revision?). The statement will be parsed for the extent to which it aligns with or is designed to partially offset the new forecasts and also for what it says about the balance of risks. More simply: where is the "headwinds become tailwinds" meme going to show up more clearly? In the statement or in the SEP? The presser will be a crap shoot as no one knows how effective a market whisperer Powell is going to turn out to be. Key here will be how aggressive he is at reinforcing the message from his first day of testimony on Capitol Hill late last month. There may be some questions about the tariffs, which should be interesting - how do you balance out the myriad unknowns there with the expected economic sugar high from fiscal stimulus and won't both the stimulus and the tariffs p
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5 comments on “Fed Signals 2 More Hikes In 2018: Dot Plot, Projections, Statement, Analysis

  1. Curt Tyner says:

    Yada, Yada,Yadaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.

  2. […] had all the ammunition he needed here to turn this into a clinic in obfuscation. He had upgraded near- and medium-term growth forecasts in the SEP combined with an unchanged long-term growth […]

  3. […] further color in the Minutes about the upward revision to the near- and medium-term growth path in the SEP versus the unchanged longer-term outlook. Also, folks will probably be looking for some further […]

  4. […] color in the Minutes about the upward revision to the near- and medium-term growth path in the SEP versus the unchanged longer-term outlook. Also, folks will probably be looking for some […]

  5. bunny says:

    About those dot plots, Powell emphasized at his one and only presser (in March) that these are merely projection estimates. I’d add, bad estimates based on their track record. So don’t be hung up on them.

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