‘Well What If There Is No Tomorrow?’: Fed, Kushner, And Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, it’s Sunday evening at HR, and you know what that means…
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Fed Minutes: Key Points And Highlights
Read them, parse them, take them to your local palm reader…
Jobs Report, Chilled Urine, And Kashkari’s Rib Roast: Full Week Ahead Preview
If you were following along last week, then you already know what to look for in the week ahead. After the hawkish procession in Sintra, Portugal, which catalyzed an impressive euro rally and led directly to sharply higher DM rates, it’s now all about how markets attempt to price the beginning of the end for accommodative…
About That Fed “Policy Mistake”…
“The thesis that the Fed has made a policy error would seem to imply two claims: that the Fed’s hawkish stance has led to excessive tightening in financial conditions, and that this in turn has caused the economy to slow more than intended. Neither of these has happened.”
Euro Surges On Draghi’s “Three Messages,” Dollar Eyes Janet, Yuan “Suddenly” Jumps
Boy, I’ll tell you what, if you’re a central banker and you’re going to say something in public about monetary policy, you better make sure you choose your words really fucking carefully, because this market is hyper-sensitive. Here’s what we got from Draghi who, speaking at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, said he…
Is A “Stubbornly Hawkish” Fed Trying To Fucking Kill Us, Or What?
“Yet, unfazed by the roll-over in activity and inflation and lower growth expectations, the Fed and the PBOC are sticking to a stubbornly hawkish path. Tighter money at a time of weaker activity poses deflationary risks and a spill-over into the real economy.”
The Third Mandate Is Official – And “It’s Stunning” That You Don’t See It
“This morning, at a speech at the BIS Annual General Meeting, Bill Dudley came right out and stated unequivocally that the Federal Reserve was targeting financial conditions.”
When Doves Cry: Kocherlakota Is Worried That The Fed Has Abandoned You
Allison Nathan: Narayana, if inflation fails to accelerate from here, is there anything that would convince you that the Fed should get more hawkish?
Narayana Kocherlakota: No.
Guest Post: The Reverse Tepper Moment
“In the current environment, we have the opposite situation. Either the economy rolls over (which should be bad for stocks), or it bounces, at which point the Federal Reserve continues on its tightening path (which could also be bad for stocks).”
Dollar Is Happy, Pound Is Sad, And There’s Some Yuan Shenanigans Afoot
It’s about Dudley for the dollar which rose to a three-week high versus the yen overnight. As usual, it was a good cop/bad cop type of deal on Monday with Evans coming across as some semblance of dovish yesterday evening (“could delay next hike until December to assess data”), but Dudley’s “need to do it…
One Analyst Is “Increasingly Grouchy” About The Whole “Hawkish Hike” Thing
“Any day now, I’ll start denying that it was actually a hike at all.”
The Money In Your Wallet Is About To Be Collateralized By Your House
“Will the Fed hold Agency MBS as collaterals against the Federal Reserve notes in circulation? The answer to this determines everything from Treasury net supply to the quantity of bank reserve balances and the size of the Fed’s balance sheet in the future.”
A 12-Chart Visual Tour Of The June Fed Statement
Here we are, one day after the Fed and people are still trying to decide just how hawkish Janet Yellen’s presser was. Relatedly, a lot of folks are confused about the juxtaposition between Wednesday’s “sad” (to quote Trump) CPI and retail sales numbers and the committee’s decision to basically shrug them off with little but…
The Day After: Yellen’s Big Mistake
So here we are, the day after a Fed hike that was supposed to (and by a lot of accounts needed to be) dovish. Wednesday’s lackluster CPI and retail sales data should have been a “game changer” for Yellen’s messaging, a lot of folks contended, going into 2 p.m. EST. Simply put: by the time…
Traders, Analysts “A Bit Surprised” Yellen Wasn’t More Dovish
“This has apparently come as a bit of a surprise to a market that had greeted this morning’s CPI report as potentially a ‘game changer.”
