Market participants expecting high drama from Treasury’s financing estimate on Monday were left wanting.

Headed into this week’s quarterly refunding announcement, there was some speculation that Janet Yellen might cut the government’s borrowing forecast for a third consecutive quarter. On some interpretations, that’s a policy “put” of sorts, although given static coupons, the mechanism for a prospective cut to spur risk sentiment further was more convoluted compared to the setup from six months ago.

This discussion goes back to the November QRA, when Yellen, responding to a three-month, term premium-driven selloff at the long-end of the Treasury curve, delivered a duration-friendly QRA, setting the stage for a sharp bond rally that naturally (and quickly) spilled over into equities and credit.

In late January, the financing estimate again came in below the headline figure tipped three months previous, and Treasury guided for $202 billion in borrowing for the April to June quarter. The new estimate, released on Monday afternoon, was $41 billion higher, at $243 billion, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $750 billion. Treasury cited lower cash receipts, partially offset by a higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance.

That’ll disappoint those hoping for a rally catalyst. Some market participants saw scope for the borrowing estimate to undershoot meaningfully on higher tax receipts. The lower the estimate, the “better.”

Any deviation from the guidance (i.e., from the $202 billion figure tipped three months ago) will presumably show up in bill supply given Treasury indicated in January that coupon increases are over for the time being. So, Monday’s $41 billion “overshoot” presumably means more bills, but given demand from money funds, I’m not sure that deviation’s something the “average” market participant should fret over.

Treasury guided for $847 billion in borrowing for the July to September quarter, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion.

Equities faltered on Monday afternoon as market participants mulled the headline figures. To be sure, the $41 billion overshoot on the current-quarter projection’s not bullish. And it is material for the narrative. Beyond that, though, I don’t see it as something that’s likely to impact sentiment past Wednesday, when the refunding details are released.

Bottom line: Lower versus the $202 billion guide would’ve been better for the financing estimate, so higher’s worse, by definition. But what’s $41 billion between friends in the context of the US debt market? A “rounding error,” as one observer put it on Monday afternoon.