Marko Kolanovic Cautions Against Buying Stock Dips

Marko Kolanovic’s not buying it.

Last week’s rebound in equities following a three-week swoon, I mean. Or any forthcoming double-dip either, for that matter.

A renewed rally in the mega-caps is “masking ‘high for long’ worries,” Kolanovic wrote Monday, as Tesla surged 15%, helping Bloomberg’s Magnificent 7 gauge extend gains.

After careening nearly 10% lower over six trading days, the big guns found their footing ahead of critical results from Amazon and Apple.

Last week, Kolanovic said equities could stabilize amid earnings, but warned that any respite from the pullback which began a month ago would likely prove fleeting. He reiterated as much on Monday.

“While Q1 earnings remain in focus this week, beyond this we remain concerned about [a] repeat of last summer’s drawdown, where the growth-policy tradeoff could move away from the Goldilocks narrative, together with a continued risk of concentration reversal, too-steep projections for earnings acceleration this year and positioning unwind,” Marko said.

The bank’s (still) underweight equities in their model portfolio, in part because, like Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, Kolanovic believes the rates re-pricing might’ve reached the point where stocks can no longer “look the other way.”

Equities “produced a great Sharpe from October to March despite an 80bps uptick in yields,” Kolanovic and co. went on, noting that although they “understand the temptation to play for a tactical bounce” following the three-week slide that pushed the S&P ~5% off the highs, and while “selling pressure could be exhausted” for now, the “upside risk” for bond yields suggests there’s scope for “a repeat of the mid-April correction.”

The bottom line, from JPMorgan’s perspective, is that risks to the Fed path are now more two-way than they’ve been in quite a while. “We would caution against buying dip[s],” Kolanovic said.


 

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