debt housing Macro Tourist

Mind The Scale, Chicken Little

"I simply want to point out that neither one of these graphs are anywhere near as bearish as the Chicken Littles claim."

"I simply want to point out that neither one of these graphs are anywhere near as bearish as the Chicken Littles claim."
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2 comments on “Mind The Scale, Chicken Little

  1. broblawsky

    I can’t agree with this. In real, per-capita terms, total credit market debt is still at its highest level in recorded history, beyond even the GFC peak: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=j8ro

    Similarly, while per-capita real mortgage debt may not be as bad as it was during the GFC, it’s still sitting at late-2003/early-2004 levels, above any pre-bubble level in history: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=j8rt

  2. monkfelonious

    Umm, the last two charts (in comparison) look pretty much the same to me. Lets make the X coordinate value long enough and the Y less, any line through points (describing a range) will appear flat, the wiggles undetectable to the human eye thus rendering them useless. So what’s the point, I thought everyone knew this? My point is charts are more or less useless in the long term. Every chartest on the planet plays with the coordinates in order to add or subtract drama. Just draw me a chart of the change in average global temps over the last 10,000 years with the Y, temp, in 10* Celsius increments and the X ,days (all 3,650,000 of them with ten inches of ‘space’ between each), and see how nicely it shows “What’s the big deal?” Yeah, I know that my product is ridiculous. I’m a little disappointed, this guy usually has something better to offer.

    “I have noticed articles where American housing bears claim another bubble is being blown in real estate. They will cherry-pick periods to make it look like housing is being built at an astonishing pace.”

    Has not the author done the same? HIS chart offered as an example starts at 2010. What happened before that?

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