Trader Delivers ‘Harsh Realities’ On Breakevens, TIPs And Other Matters

“You have to be long TIPS, but also short Treasuries. Owning TIPS outright is not good enough.”


One Trader Takes A Closer Look At The Buyback Bonanza

Fade the Barron’s cover?

Trader: How I Learned Not To Fight The Fed And How To Trade ‘QT’

“The days when the Federal Reserve has a large bond maturity have seen abnormally large declines in the S&P 500.”

Pushing Against The Big Wave

“And if the money velocity stops declining, and god forbid, even increases, what will happen to the mountain of monetary stimulus that has been administered over the past decade?”

One Trader Ponders The Outlook For Gold

“…what is driving gold more at this point of the cycle? Is it the US dollar, or real yields? Has gold disappointedly not risen as high as the bulls would like given the US dollar weakness? Or has gold not declined nearly as much as the bears would have expected given the run-up in real yields?”

Trader: There Is No Better Signal Than This

“Don’t bother arguing with the hard-money gurus about the correct policy course. Just watch the yield curve. The market is smarter than all of us.”

Trader: Here’s My Beef With Jamie Dimon’s Annual Letter

“What happened each time the Fed stopped QE? Yields fell. The complete opposite of what Jamie would predict.”

Trader: Probably Not Best To Unwind 30 Years Of Chinese Trade Policy With 1 Month Of Tweets

“So, if we assume that Trump wants to reverse this process, then what’s the logical outcome?”

Trader: This ‘Out-Of-The-Blue Outcome Could Hurt Some Market Players’

“While there can be no denying that stock markets often take the escalator up and the elevator down, this generalization is far from a law of nature.”

Here Is One Trader’s ‘Philosophical Friday’ Debt Rant

“Now you might look at these charts and say, ‘Greece spent too much and suffered the consequences. Ultimately they will be better off taking the hit and reorganizing in a more productive economic fashion.’ If so, you probably also still have this poster hanging in your room at your parent’s house where you grew up.”

Trader Asks: ‘Which Would You Rather Own’?

“Draghi’s monetary subsidy of cheap funding for corporations should not be leaking into this number. Yet it obviously is…”

Mind The Scale, Chicken Little

“I simply want to point out that neither one of these graphs are anywhere near as bearish as the Chicken Littles claim.”

Trader: ‘I Know This Seems Crazy, But’…

“They’re back. I thought they had all given up, but like an old college buddy who’s going through a bad divorce and just needs a place to crash for a ‘few days,’ the corporate credit skeptics are a tough lot to shake.”

Trader: ‘The Next Big Surprise Is Gold’

“The only scenario that really hurts gold is a strengthening economy that has the Fed continuing to try to get ahead of the curve. I don’t know about you, but I am a seller of both of those possibilities.”

Trader: ‘That’s Not A Bond Bear Market’…

“And you would think that this might be bullish for bonds, but no, far from it. A Central Bank that is not willing to invert the curve and take the economic hit from forcing a recession is a bond investor’s nightmare. After all, apart from default, inflation is the absolute worse thing out there.”