Macro Tourist Markets

One Pro’s ‘Machiavellian’ Trump-Mnuchin Theory To ‘Prove Bears Wrong’

[Editor’s note: As many readers are likely aware, fan-favorite Kevin Muir – formerly head of equity derivatives at RBC Dominion and better known for his exploits as “The Macro Tourist” –  this year transitioned his daily letter to a subscriber-only format. The following is reprinted here with permission and is available exclusively to his subscribers and mine.] The bearish argument for the stock market is easy. You can probably do it on your own, but let’s go through all the reasons to be bearish: The actual economy continues to stumble, and even though it’s considerably better than March and April, there is still a Titanic-amount of uncertainty out there. In Europe and Canada, COVID has awakened from its summer-slumber. A Fall resurgence seems destined to weigh on the global economy. Central Bank balance sheet expansion has slowed considerably. The rate of change in Central Bank balance sheets is now almost at human-resource-update-meetings level of boredom when compared to the past six months. Fiscal policy - the last hope of the bulls, has disappointed in Europe, and with the recent impasse between the Republicans and the Democrats, appears
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7 comments on “One Pro’s ‘Machiavellian’ Trump-Mnuchin Theory To ‘Prove Bears Wrong’

  1. thiago pinto says:

    I think he ignores the incentives of the other side. You don’t think democrats also know that and want markets to be as lower as possible before the elections?

  2. Anomalous2 says:

    Recently new cash for farmers, $200 debit cards to millions of Medicare recipients. Can’t wait to get my letter from the king reminding me he is responsible. No, he is not buying votes, just a coincidence the election is near. He really cares.

    • Mr. Lucky says:

      In the good ol’ days of big city machine politics party apparatchiks would pass among the great unwashed on election day passing out blankets, food, tiny vouchers, anything for a quick bit of gratitude and a vote.

  3. MacroGuy says:

    Kevin,
    “There is lots of debate about whether this money is earmarked for future programs”

    OR futures program?

  4. cdameworth says:

    My expectation is that Trump and his cronies will drive the market higher in October to try to convince voters that he is still electable because of “how good he is at business”. They will use any means necessary to accomplish this because he truly understands the stock market is the only thing positively attributable to him as a “leader”. But I also expect that if he loses and in an overwhelming fashion that Trump will do everything in his power to destroy the entire US economy. This is a man with a very fragile ego. He will take America’s rejection of him personally and look for any means possible to come out on top (in his warped narcistic mind). By the time that man flies out of the US for good, it will be unrecognizable to anyone who had ever been to this country before he became president.

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