Election Day Macro Tourist

Macro Tourist: The US Election ‘Won’t Be The Start Of The Next Financial Crisis’

"I have never seen a financial crisis occur when the vast majority of investors were worried about it."

[Editor’s note: The following is an excerpt from a recent, longer piece by Kevin Muir, formerly head of equity derivatives at RBC Dominion and better known for his exploits as “The Macro Tourist.” His daily letter is now subscriber-only. The following is reprinted here with permission and is available exclusively to his subscribers and mine. Those interested in trading ideas from Kevin related to the piece below can check out the new MacroTourist here.] Well, it’s finally here -- Election Day in the United States. I am going to break my rule, and write about politics (a little bit), but before I do, I want to emphasize that it will be solely from the perspective about what it means for the market. I have no desire to convince anyone of what should be done. I am only interested in what will be done. However, it’s not quite that easy. Trading is not only about forecasting the correct fork in the road, but calculating the odds of that path being taken, while also evaluating the payoff profile if you choose correctly. Let’s say the market has priced in a 1 out of 5 chance of an event occurring. However, you think the odds are actually 2 out of 5. Not only that, if
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4 comments on “Macro Tourist: The US Election ‘Won’t Be The Start Of The Next Financial Crisis’

  1. os72 says:

    i approve this message 🙂

  2. joesailboat says:

    I agree with the article and glad he shared it with us.
    Seeing what Murdock junior had to say today leads me to believe that FOX may be moving on.

  3. Emptynester says:

    I take my cue from my 20-something daughter, who lives in LA. On Sunday, I suggested she consider pre-purchasing a few days of groceries in case the post-election days got out of control. She lives & works from home just blocks from where horrible looting occurred during the BLM protests- so she has experienced street violence first hand.
    She laughed me off and said she would be shocked if things got crazy. She said only Beverly Hills is worried with everything boarded up and extra security hired.

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