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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Shipping Problems

October 14, 2025October 15, 2025

“Don’t worry about China. It will all be fine!” That joke probably isn’t going to

Read More

4 Comments on Shipping Problems

Parsing The Nuance Of Goldman’s Record Quarter

October 14, 2025October 15, 2025

You already knew it was going to be a decent quarter for Goldman. Dealmaking’s back

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Leave a Comment on Parsing The Nuance Of Goldman’s Record Quarter

JPMorgan Beats On Nearly Everything. Dimon Says Prepared For Literally Anything.

October 14, 2025October 15, 2025

JPMorgan kicked off big bank earnings Tuesday with a top-line beat, a bottom-line beat and

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Leave a Comment on JPMorgan Beats On Nearly Everything. Dimon Says Prepared For Literally Anything.

TACO Alpha

October 13, 2025October 14, 2025

TACO. Who wants TACOs? I’m referring, of course, to the acronym for “Trump Always Chickens

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18 Comments on TACO Alpha

Beware The Jabberwock

October 13, 2025October 14, 2025

“These things have gotten so complex you need the whole thing,” Sam Altman said Monday,

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26 Comments on Beware The Jabberwock

De-Coupling? No Problem

October 13, 2025October 14, 2025

Vandelay Industries had a solid month in September, trade data released on Monday suggested. Indeed,

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Only The Dead

October 13, 2025October 14, 2025

“You know what would be great? If we could make a peace deal with [Iran].”

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5 Comments on Only The Dead

(Do Fear) The Reaper

October 12, 2025October 13, 2025

Life could get “tough,” particularly for the world’s have-nots, in the event of a “sharp

Read More

7 Comments on (Do Fear) The Reaper

Gold To $6,000?

October 12, 2025October 13, 2025

Gold bulls, like Bitcoin bulls, tend to be an excitable bunch prone to wild extrapolation.

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4 Comments on Gold To $6,000?

China Hits Back At Trump, Risking New Escalation Phase

October 12, 2025October 13, 2025

World peace. That’s why China had to institute new, sweeping controls on exports of rare

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7 Comments on China Hits Back At Trump, Risking New Escalation Phase

Weekly: The Stock Rally Has A SPOF Problem

October 11, 2025October 13, 2025

The stock rally has a SPOF problem. Several of them, actually. Fewer than 10 US

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10 Comments on Weekly: The Stock Rally Has A SPOF Problem

Well, Hello Bear!

October 10, 2025October 12, 2025

As a previously bulletproof equity market careened lower into the US afternoon on Friday, CNBC

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8 Comments on Well, Hello Bear!

‘Sinister,’ ‘Hostile’ Moves

October 10, 2025October 12, 2025

Somebody’s mad about being snubbed for the Nobel Peace Prize. Donald Trump on Friday lost

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19 Comments on ‘Sinister,’ ‘Hostile’ Moves

Americans Still Deeply Depressed. Rich Stock-Owners Less So

October 10, 2025October 11, 2025

If you own stocks, you feel better about your financial situation than if you don’t.

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1 Comment on Americans Still Deeply Depressed. Rich Stock-Owners Less So

The Dollar: Back From The Dead?

October 10, 2025October 12, 2025

Don’t look now, but the dollar’s on the cusp of its best week in nearly

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3 Comments on The Dollar: Back From The Dead?

Shame

October 9, 2025October 10, 2025

They were dancing (very awkwardly, I might add) in the streets in Tel Aviv’s Hostage

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13 Comments on Shame

Trading Short, Playing Catch-Up

October 9, 2025October 9, 2025

“Why have equities been trading short?” That’s what JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wants to know. Whenever

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Just Another Tech Bubble Article

October 9, 2025October 10, 2025

The good news is, the rally in tech stocks is “justified.” That’s also the bad

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9 Comments on Just Another Tech Bubble Article

How AI Spending Could Rob Stocks Of Their Biggest Buyer

October 9, 2025October 10, 2025

This’ll be a bit repetitive, but that’s fine because it’s important, and there’s a tie-in

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4 Comments on How AI Spending Could Rob Stocks Of Their Biggest Buyer

A Half-Trillion Dollar Sell Flow (Hypothetically)

October 8, 2025October 10, 2025

Things better stay calm. If you’re looking for a four-word summary of everything I’ve written

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8 Comments on A Half-Trillion Dollar Sell Flow (Hypothetically)

Some Fed Officials Unconvinced Of Rate Cut Case: FOMC Minutes

October 8, 2025October 9, 2025

“Several participants observed that high-income households were increasingly doing better, economically, than lower-income households.” That’s

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1 Comment on Some Fed Officials Unconvinced Of Rate Cut Case: FOMC Minutes

Apples, Oranges And The AI Bubble

October 8, 2025October 9, 2025

I don’t love charts that purport to compare apples and oranges. I say “purport” because

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4 Comments on Apples, Oranges And The AI Bubble

US Home Purchases Are Still Falling Through At Record Rates

October 8, 2025October 8, 2025

US housing. It’s — what word should I use? — complicated. That’s a (very) polite

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2 Comments on US Home Purchases Are Still Falling Through At Record Rates

Albert Edwards Explains ‘Batsh-t’ Precious Metals Rally

October 8, 2025October 8, 2025

“Batshit crazy.” That’s me. Ask around. Somebody, somewhere will emphatically attest. But in 2025 I’m

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1 Comment on Albert Edwards Explains ‘Batsh-t’ Precious Metals Rally

Gold’s Moment

October 8, 2025October 9, 2025

Gold’s having a moment. Spot prices cleared $4,000 on Wednesday, green-lighting another round of mostly

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17 Comments on Gold’s Moment

Margin For Error

October 7, 2025October 8, 2025

I guess I have to mention Oracle. Right? I mean, you can’t harp on potential

Read More

7 Comments on Margin For Error

Schrödinger’s Equities Vol

October 7, 2025October 8, 2025

What do you get when you combine moribund trailing realized vol with recently firmer implied

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4 Comments on Schrödinger’s Equities Vol

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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