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Walking And Chewing Gum
The policy rate's in the neighborhood of neutral and having delivered 75bps of cuts since September,
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I used to find it amusing to watch the indices skitter around as algos reacted to key words each of which triggered an action.
“Anyway, who cares, right?” Lol
The winter fresh reference is a deep cut, very nicely done.
Fun fact: the Wrigley’s Doublemint Chewing Gum jingle was written by Chris Brown. Yes, that Chris Brown.
The Fed has cut rates 175 bp since Sep 2024, just over a year ago. Inflation had only dropped below 3% a couple months earlier. That seems as early a start to the easing cycle as is/was practical. Another 100-200 bp cut in 2026? Not what the market currently expects, but the market doesn’t predict Fed actions a year out any better than the Fed does. It’s what Trump wants, which counts for something. So, 275-375 bp cuts in two years? Viewed from the future, that will look classically recessionary.