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Flying Blind Behind Lame Duck, Divided Fed Braves Hawkish Cut
A Fed flying partially blind due to delays in the publication of key government data and facing the
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Powell did say they thought the BLS had overstated job growth over the past 6 months which seems to be a fairly strong acknowledgement of the dove case.
Well, yeah, he said that 45 minutes later. You folks do realize that when the financial media covers this stuff, they go back and change the language in their coverage based on subsequent statements, right? 2:01’s “hawkish cut” can be 2:34’s “neutral cut” can be 3:16’s “dovish cut,” and if you’re not watching the whole time, you’ll never know the difference.
Besides, that suspicion of Powell’s apparently wasn’t sufficient to dissuade the six policymakers who would’ve preferred no change (two voters, four non-voters), nor the seven who see no change next year.
It’s absurd to call a rate cut with two dissents for no change, a 0.5ppt upgrade to the growth outlook, a 4.4% projected UNR (i.e., de facto full employment) and plain-as-day “on hold” forward guidance “dovish,” particularly in the context of a deluge of poor private-sector labor market data. What kind of sense does that make?
We’re way, way too far down the rabbit hole on third-, fourth- and fifth-order Fed thinking at this point.
Understood
Trump absolutely wants to own every Fed president appointment. The one thing he’s been clear and steady on from his campaign is wanting to be in complete control of everything and everybody including the olympic games, world cup soccer and who is the halftime entertainment at the Super Bowl. If he thought he could do it the word Trump would be on every building, stadium and airport in the country. I’m sure he has wet dreams about the United States of Trump.
Lol, yes.
Does anyone have a reasonable idea why Goolsbee voted against a cut? I was surprised to see that he dissented. Thanks
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/chicago-feds-goolsbee-says-hes-cautious-about-further-rate-cuts-during-shutdown.html
Thank you.