Americans — I should probably say rich Americans — are still spending. Or at least they were a couple of months back.
On Tuesday, the Census Bureau got around the publishing retail sales data for October, which is nice of them.
The figures, delayed by the shutdown, showed overall spending on goods, restaurant food and bar tabs was unchanged at the beginning of Q3, but the underlying measure economists use to refine GDP forecasts was robust.
As the simple chart below shows, the flat headline print counted as the weakest in five months. September’s readout was revised lower to reflect only a marginal change. But the all-important control group printed a 0.8% gain, the most lively showing since June.
The control group print doubled up consensus, more than making up for the prior month’s slight decrease. That’s what traders and policymakers will eye, to the extent they can stop ogling the statistical Frankenstein monster that was the BLS’s October-November jobs report.
The MoM ex-autos print, a 0.4% increase, likewise doubled estimates. Stripping out cars and gas, nominal spending rose 0.5% in October from September. Consensus expected 0.4% there.
Eight of 13 categories in the report showed a gain, but one of them wasn’t food services and drinking places, the only services sector category in the release. Spending at nonstore retailers rose 1.8%.
You can probably write the boilerplate copy on this one for yourself. But just in case: The figures for October underscore sundry “the consumer’s still fine” narratives, with all the usual caveats to account for the “K-shaped” nature of the US economy.
On that latter point, Elon Musk, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Jeff Bezos, Larry Ellison, Mark Zuckerberg, Steve Ballmer, Warren Buffett, Michael Dell and the Waltons control $2.74 trillion in wealth between them, against $4.21 trillion for the entire bottom 50% of society, where more than 65 million households struggle to make ends meet every month. [Insert Bernie mittens meme.]
Remember: Overall consumer sentiment in America’s never been worse.



H-Man, the “ugly” is just starting. And it will be very ugly.