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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

17,000

October 7, 2025October 8, 2025

The US jobs report came out. Did you hear? Ok, not really, but the good

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2 Comments on 17,000

Justifiable Propaganda

October 7, 2025October 8, 2025

I’m hittin’ the “bubble” theme pretty hard lately. Some of you are probably tired of

Read More

14 Comments on Justifiable Propaganda

The General State Of Things

October 6, 2025October 7, 2025

It’s not all about AI. The equity rally, I mean. But there’s a self-fulfilling prophecy

Read More

5 Comments on The General State Of Things

Chip Chasin’

October 6, 2025October 7, 2025

They’re chasin’ it. The rally, I mean. If that sounds like a familiar opener (“Do

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Hype Machine Volume: 11

October 6, 2025October 7, 2025

OpenAI. Ever heard of it? The funny thing is, most people hadn’t until not so

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1 Comment on Hype Machine Volume: 11

Gold, Bitcoin And Breaching The Laugh Threshold

October 6, 2025October 7, 2025

We might’ve (b)reached the “laugh threshold.” During the pandemic, I was a staunch defender of

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11 Comments on Gold, Bitcoin And Breaching The Laugh Threshold

Expeditionary Force

October 5, 2025October 6, 2025

Is that legal? If so, how? Those two questions come up a lot these days

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8 Comments on Expeditionary Force

Remember Nvidia?

October 5, 2025October 6, 2025

In an October 4 piece for Bloomberg, Seth Fiegerman and Carmen Reinicke wrote, of the

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12 Comments on Remember Nvidia?

Troops In The Streets, Layoffs In The Capital

October 5, 2025October 6, 2025

This week’s US data docket would be light even if government reports weren’t suspended for

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7 Comments on Troops In The Streets, Layoffs In The Capital

Weekly: Perfect Storm, Imperfect Union Revisited

October 4, 2025October 6, 2025

In December of 2023, I published a piece called “Perfect Storm, Imperfect Union.” Technically, it

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11 Comments on Weekly: Perfect Storm, Imperfect Union Revisited

Why The Stock Bubble Might Not Pop. Yet.

October 3, 2025October 5, 2025

Why do cycles die? There are a lot of possible (plausible) answers, but one of

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9 Comments on Why The Stock Bubble Might Not Pop. Yet.

Wall Street Versus Main Street: It’s Complicated

October 3, 2025October 3, 2025

True or false: The stock market = the economy. True or false: Wall Street =

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1 Comment on Wall Street Versus Main Street: It’s Complicated

Trump Will Bring Peace To Mideast By Sunday. With Violence If Necessary

October 3, 2025October 5, 2025

Donald Trump’s going to bring peace to the Middle East even if he has to

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7 Comments on Trump Will Bring Peace To Mideast By Sunday. With Violence If Necessary

Damn You, Stagflation!

October 3, 2025October 4, 2025

It’s a miss. Wait, I have to snap everyone out of their equity melt-up stupor,

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2 Comments on Damn You, Stagflation!

How The Stock Melt-Up Dies. Or Not.

October 3, 2025October 5, 2025

I suppose it’s just as well we’re not getting a US jobs report on Friday.

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1 Comment on How The Stock Melt-Up Dies. Or Not.

The Leader We Deserve

October 2, 2025October 3, 2025

Remember when Donald Trump didn’t have anything to do with Project 2025, let alone any

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12 Comments on The Leader We Deserve

Gang Aft Agley

October 2, 2025October 3, 2025

Hiring. US private sector employers aren’t. Or at least not according to this week’s ADP

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3 Comments on Gang Aft Agley

‘By Far The Largest On Record’ (Bubble Tickets)

October 2, 2025October 3, 2025

They’re grabbing for upside. Or buying lottery tickets. Or they’re just keen to ride a

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8 Comments on ‘By Far The Largest On Record’ (Bubble Tickets)

US Jobless Rate Biased Higher In September, New Fed Model Shows

October 2, 2025October 3, 2025

The unemployment rate in the US probably stuck at 4.3% last month, but it “wants”

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Lights Out

October 1, 2025October 2, 2025

Late Tuesday evening, with the US government shutdown clock ticking down under four hours, Donald

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11 Comments on Lights Out

SCOTUS Draws A Line At The Fed. For Now.

October 1, 2025October 2, 2025

What’s that I perceive, glimmering faintly in the smoldering ashes of a republic we couldn’t

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2 Comments on SCOTUS Draws A Line At The Fed. For Now.

‘Tariffs Are Killing Us’: Trade Taxes Prolong US Factory Recession

October 1, 2025October 2, 2025

Could’ve been worse. But it was still pretty bad. That’s my take on Wednesday’s ISM

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Ruh-Roh! Hammer Falls On US Labor Market

October 1, 2025October 2, 2025

Ruh-roh! The US private sector lost 32,000 jobs on net in September, according to the

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4 Comments on Ruh-Roh! Hammer Falls On US Labor Market

Can De-Globalization Be Good For Corporate Profits?

September 30, 2025

Maybe globalization wasn’t such a great idea after all. That’s been the rallying cry for

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6 Comments on Can De-Globalization Be Good For Corporate Profits?

Is The S&P ‘The New Risk-Free Rate’?

September 30, 2025October 1, 2025

This time’s different. (Narrator: It’s not.) A couple of days ago, someone sent me a

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Leave a Comment on Is The S&P ‘The New Risk-Free Rate’?

Now Hiring?

September 30, 2025October 1, 2025

The good news is, job openings across the world’s largest economy stabilized after falling for

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2 Comments on Now Hiring?

Gilded Age? Sure. ‘Golden Age’? Nah.

September 30, 2025October 1, 2025

American households’ view on Donald Trump’s economy deteriorated “sharply” in September, Tuesday’s update on consumer

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2 Comments on Gilded Age? Sure. ‘Golden Age’? Nah.

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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