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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Americans Are Still Bailing On Home Contracts Despite ‘Low’ Rates

October 22, 2025October 23, 2025

US mortgage rates. They’re high and low at the same time. High in the context

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Trump Likes Chances In $230 Million Settlement Claim Against Himself

October 21, 2025October 22, 2025

Donald Trump’s allegedly demanding the Justice Department he now controls write him a check —

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15 Comments on Trump Likes Chances In $230 Million Settlement Claim Against Himself

Gold Rally Finally Collapses Under Its Own Weight

October 21, 2025October 22, 2025

Earlier this month, when spot gold first cleared $4,000, I gently suggested it was time

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7 Comments on Gold Rally Finally Collapses Under Its Own Weight

Vol Supply Wave Smothered Nascent Stock Selloff

October 21, 2025October 22, 2025

This’ll be a little esoteric for some readers, but that’s ok: Esoterica’s part of the

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2 Comments on Vol Supply Wave Smothered Nascent Stock Selloff

Glass Ceilings, Iron Ladies

October 21, 2025October 22, 2025

We’re witnessing “a new dawn for Japanese policymaking.” So said Fumitake Fujita of the Japan

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7 Comments on Glass Ceilings, Iron Ladies

Much Ado About Idiosyncratic Nothings

October 20, 2025October 21, 2025

I hate to say “I told you so,” but you have to be careful with

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3 Comments on Much Ado About Idiosyncratic Nothings

Leave The Buybacks, Take The Capex

October 20, 2025October 21, 2025

Buybacks or capex? Cue the knight from The Last Crusade: “You must choose. But choose

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7 Comments on Leave The Buybacks, Take The Capex

The Risks Of Trump’s Brazen Latin America Policy

October 20, 2025October 21, 2025

Late last year, following Donald Trump’s reelection, a piece in Foreign Affairs predicted an end

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13 Comments on The Risks Of Trump’s Brazen Latin America Policy

China Posts Small GDP Beat, But Retail Sales Abysmal

October 19, 2025October 21, 2025

China barely kept up appearances in the third quarter amid lackluster domestic demand and what

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Dozens Killed As Gaza Ceasefire Teeters

October 19, 2025October 20, 2025

The Trump administration’s Gaza ceasefire lasted less than a week. More than a dozen Palestinians

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3 Comments on Dozens Killed As Gaza Ceasefire Teeters

Return Of The Number Crunchers

October 19, 2025October 20, 2025

As you might’ve heard, the Trump administration’s recalling a handful of furloughed BLS statisticians this

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Weekly: Of Roaches And Mini-Crises

October 18, 2025October 20, 2025

Everybody can’t be me, and in a lot of respects that’s a blessing for humanity.

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8 Comments on Weekly: Of Roaches And Mini-Crises

Rich But Not Crazy

October 17, 2025October 17, 2025

Rich but not crazy. That’s global equities. Bubble coverage took a backseat to cockroach coverage

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When Rackets Fail

October 17, 2025October 19, 2025

If you’re going to make a living — any kind of living — on threats,

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17 Comments on When Rackets Fail

Depressed And Bullish

October 17, 2025October 19, 2025

Never mind what they say, watch what they do. You could argue that’s the right

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1 Comment on Depressed And Bullish

It Must Be A God

October 17, 2025October 19, 2025

Gold. It’s shiny and it looks like the sun. It must be a god. In

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5 Comments on It Must Be A God

Roach Panic

October 16, 2025October 18, 2025

Goddammit, here we go. There’s nothing I despise more as a chronicler of daily macro-market

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7 Comments on Roach Panic

No, Poor Americans Aren’t Rich Now

October 16, 2025October 17, 2025

I don’t want to be too abrasive about this, but it needs to be said

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7 Comments on No, Poor Americans Aren’t Rich Now

What’s Next For Gaza (Nothing Good!)

October 16, 2025October 17, 2025

“They’re going to disarm. If they don’t disarm, we’ll disarm them.” (Narrator: They’re not going

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6 Comments on What’s Next For Gaza (Nothing Good!)

Hope Floats For America’s Forlorn Homebuilders

October 16, 2025October 17, 2025

The homebuilders are feeling better. With the caveat that “better” is even more of a

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1 Comment on Hope Floats For America’s Forlorn Homebuilders

‘You Can’t Do This In A Nation Of Laws’

October 15, 2025October 16, 2025

“You can’t do this in a nation of laws.” Said everyone who’s so far failed

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9 Comments on ‘You Can’t Do This In A Nation Of Laws’

Maoist Malaise

October 15, 2025October 16, 2025

The thing that’s great about strict autocracies is… well, nothing. Nothing’s great about uncompromising authoritarianism,

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3 Comments on Maoist Malaise

Yes, Scott, Trump’s Scared Of The Stock Market

October 15, 2025October 16, 2025

The Trump administration’s not going to let a stock market decline get in the way

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7 Comments on Yes, Scott, Trump’s Scared Of The Stock Market

Morgan Stanley Wins Stock-Trading Bragging Rights With 35% Surge

October 15, 2025October 16, 2025

Morgan Stanley’s supposed to shine in stock trading. It’s tradition. But like the Winter Hill

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Boring BofA Just Had A Really Good Quarter

October 15, 2025October 15, 2025

“Revenues grew at a much faster rate than expenses,” Brian Moynihan said Wednesday morning, in

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2 Comments on Boring BofA Just Had A Really Good Quarter

Risk Taking And Sell Signals

October 14, 2025October 14, 2025

Strange as this sounds, a fixture of the equity melt-up to a succession of new

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2 Comments on Risk Taking And Sell Signals

You Buy Bubbles, You Don’t Short Them

October 14, 2025October 15, 2025

This isn’t investment advice, but for the hundred millionth time: You don’t short bubbles, you

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12 Comments on You Buy Bubbles, You Don’t Short Them

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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