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BLS Credibility Deficit Worsens As CPI Math Panned
Needless to say, the BLS didn't do itself any favors in the credibility department with Thursday's U
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When Trump fires colleagues of those who get to stay, the handwriting is on the wall. I am not astonished.
H-Man, is it really surprising the books are cooked in favor of rate cuts? According to those numbers inflation is behaved since “affordability” is not an issue ; labor is sucking air — look for three cuts next year. The pig will need a truck load of lipstick.
I keep thinking I’ll build a tolerance for the stupidity but they keep upping the dose.
I’m definitely stealing that line.
You said it. This had me laughing. Loudly. It startled the cat.
” carry-forward imputation,” – I laughed out loud at that one. Going to use that in the next corporate curated event, where corporate clap trap is the spoken language.
When I was a business professor I got dragged into consulting as a side gig. I had one client for over 20 years who paid most of my household expenses for most of that time. It turned out that I had a certain penchant for speaking corporate “clap trap.” The client was a regulated business and the regulators just loved my reports, making me extremely valuable. For the three years before I picked up where I left off teaching briefly to go corporate, as it were, I got loads of practice writing annual reports, press releases, and shareholder communications and such. I think it was me rebelling against my former English teachers. Talking trash was fun, and profitable.
Good article.
BLS release shows shelter inflation as blanks for both October and November. I am puzzled why there isn’t shelter survey data for November; even if BLS wasn’t able to mail surveys until mid-month, it sure got responses which it could have used albeit with large error bars. I am also puzzled why the missing data must undercut shelter inflation going forward; BLS surely can calculate after rebasing for the missing subsample?
BLS takes this work very seriously (I know a BLS data scientist). It knows how to interpolate, estimate, and otherwise compensate for missing data. I suspect a combination of political pressure and legal/procedural constraints are the explanation.
Anyway, look for investors to pay a lot more attention to private inflation data. For shelter, analysts/economists can construct data series from online sources and private market reports. Asking rents are easy to track, renewal rents can be extracted from private data.
Breaking News: Kevin Hasset is dumber than rocks, so he will get the Fed chair. In MAGA world, the less competent, the more morally corrupt, the more depraved cruelty you dish out leads to you getting the position.