Powell Says Neutral Rate Doesn’t Matter Today. He’s Wrong
The r-star discussion, which is to say the debate about where interest rates should be
Fault Lines
I’m not a seismologist. In fact, I’m not a scientist of any kind, unless you
Key US Services Price Gauge Falls To Four-Year Low
Markets needed an offset on Wednesday. According to ADP, the annual rate of pay growth
Uh-Oh: Job-Switcher Pay Explodes Higher In Hot ADP Report
US private sector employers added 184,000 jobs in March, far more than expected, ADP said
Tesla Delivers A Buzz Kill
Reluctant as I am to chase Tesla headlines, I’m compelled to mention the company’s delivery
If Past Is Precedent
In light of equities’ stellar YTD performance, and considering rampant speculation that a correction’s not
Stocks May Face Come-To-Jesus Moment In US Jobs Report
Early this week, I suggested US equities might be disquieted by a backup in rates
Israel, US Dismantle Soleimani Network In Shadow War With Iran
Even before this week’s strike on its embassy in Damascus, Iran’s losses were mounting. Beginning
Fed’s ‘Immaculate Disinflation’ Intact, But Stalled
There were 8.756 million open jobs across the world’s largest economy on the last business
Another ‘Since The Dot-Com Bubble’ Stat
If you had to pick just one word to describe the US equity market in
Rates Turn Adversarial Amid US Factory Fillip
The keen among you might’ve perceived the faintest hint of a “good news is bad
End Of US Manufacturing Recession Comes With Inflation Warning
Rejoice: The US manufacturing recession’s over. America’s marquee gauge of factory activity moved into expansion
Bulls Look To Stay In Command As Q2 Dawns
After a banner Q1 for risk assets, the second quarter was poised for a constructive
The Divide
I couldn’t decide if it was ironic. And if it was, whether he recognized the
More Goldilocks?
Economists expect more “Goldilocks” data out of the world’s largest economy this week. The US
China Says Recovery Gathering Steam
Chinese economic activity picked up in March, according to… well, according to China’s statisticians. Can
Regulators
If you’re looking for (or need) a short-notice bear narrative for a market high on
Treasury Needs Fed Cuts For ‘Interest Cost Control,’ One Bank Says
I’m a bit allergic to quasi-nefarious Fed-Treasury “partnership” narratives. There’s something profoundly silly about stating
US Equities Return To Inflows While Money Market AUM Drops Second Week
The equities flows seesaw continued over the latest weekly reporting period. US-stock focused ETFs and
Half-Full Or Half-Empty?
There are a number of lenses through which one can view the ongoing equity rally
Fed Gets Good News On Good Friday
The American consumer was undeterred last month and price pressures were a bit less acute
Albert Edwards Has A New Bear Narrative
Albert Edwards has a bear narrative. More than one, actually. Albert’s collection of bear narratives
US Housing Thaw Belies Absurd Affordability Spiral
It’s nothing to write home about (get it?) but pending home sales in the US
Biden Gets A Break As US Consumer Sentiment Revised Sharply Higher
A marquee gauge of US consumer sentiment inflected meaningfully, and unexpectedly, for the better in
Another Bear Narrative Dies As GDI/GDP Gap Closes
The pace of US economic expansion during last year’s final quarter got a bump on
‘One Day Out Of The Blue’
As the book closed on a second consecutive stellar quarter for equities, the bear case
High Rollers
In “Will Fed Hikes Catch Up To Corporates After All?” I wondered if the much-discussed
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