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Albert Edwards Has A New Bear Narrative
Albert Edwards has a bear narrative. More than one, actually.
Albert's collection of bear narrative
We are neither at the troughs of investor fear, estimate cuts, pessimistic expectations, negative surprises, and excessively low valuations, nor at the highs of investor ebuillence, estimate hikes, aggressive expectations, positive surprises, and excessively high valuations.
We’re somewhere on the path from the former to the latter. I don’t have a good sense of how far we are along the path or how close to the end. There are negatives, Edwards points some out. There are positives. The diffusion index probably looks positive, we can estimate how long the path might be, but diffusion indices can turn rapidly and the path could get cut short by big negative surprises.
Strategists have to make those calls and good luck to them. I think that for regular investors, best to focus on getting the best ideas in the portfolio, maintaining risk didcipline, while keeping your ears cocked for creaking and snapping sounds.