Rejoice: The US manufacturing recession’s over.

America’s marquee gauge of factory activity moved into expansion territory for the first time since late 2022, the first of this week’s top-tier data from the world’s largest economy showed.

At 50.3, the ISM headline was easily ahead of estimates. Economists expected 48.3, which would’ve counted as a 17th consecutive contraction.

“Demand was positive, output strengthened and inputs remained accommodative,” Tim Fiore said.

The final update on S&P Global’s US factory gauge for March showed 51.9 on the headline, down marginally from the flash print (and also from the prior month), but a third straight reading north of 50 nevertheless.

Most of the key ISM subindexes painted an upbeat picture. New orders rose above 50, the production gauge printed a solid 54.6 (up dramatically from February) and although the employment gauge remained in contraction territory, it showed a meaningful improvement.

As discussed at some length here last week, an ISM inflection could bode well for the equity rally assuming, of course, it doesn’t message (or presage) the kind of rekindled animal spirits that might work at cross purposes with the so-called “last mile” of the inflation fight.

Although service sector prices get all the press, disinflation on the goods side remains an important piece of the puzzle. And the ISM prices gauge rose more than three points in March’s release, to 55.8.

S&P Global’s Chris Williamson spoke to the give and take. The upturn in demand and activity is welcome, but it’s “being accompanied by some strengthening of pricing power [as] average selling prices charged by producers rose at the fastest rate for 11 months in March,” he said.

Ominously, Williamson flagged what he described as “an especially steep rise in prices charged for consumer goods,” a development which “underscor[es] the likely bumpy path in bringing inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target.”