A marquee gauge of US consumer sentiment inflected meaningfully, and unexpectedly, for the better in the final reading for March, released on Thursday.

The revised headline print on the University of Michigan’s index for this month was 79.4, up from 76.5 in the preliminary release. Consensus expected no change from the original reading.

The upside revision to March’s provisional print came on the heels of a sharp downward revision in the final reading for February. The figure, below, shows the seesaw.

Suffice to say the data’s not getting any easier to predict as we move closer to the election.

Both the current conditions and expectations gauges improved. Note that 79.4 (the headline) counts as the best read on overall US consumer moods since July of 2021. That’ll please the White House.

The disconnect between, on one hand, red-hot GDP and rock-bottom unemployment, and, on the other, relatively dour perceptions of the economic landscape, is a source of continual consternation for Joe Biden. Polls still suggest voters trust Donald Trump — who this week unveiled a business partnership with Lee Greenwood to market $60 bibles with the slogan “Make America pray again” — more when it comes to steering the world’s largest economy.

In that context, Biden’ll be happy to learn that sentiment’s now back to levels observed before inflation really started to erode consumer psychology in earnest.

March’s final read was 58% above the record low hit in June of 2022, when the Fed was compelled, in part by an overshoot on University of Michigan longer run inflation expectations, to resort to 75bps rate-hike increments.

Speaking of inflation expectations, Thursday’s release came packaged with downward revisions at both horizons. Year-ahead expectations were 2.9% (from 3% in the preliminary release) and five- to 10-year expectations 2.8% (from 2.9%).

All in all, the Michigan sentiment update was amenable to a Goldilocks interpretation. Survey director Joanne Hsu noted that inflation uncertainty receded as well. “Consumers are now broadly in agreement that inflation will continue to slow both over the short-term and the long-term,” she said.