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Featured

Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

September 22, 2026
  • WTF: Buyer’s Market, Higher Prices?

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

    September 22, 2026September 22, 2026

Markets

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Weekly: The Counterfactual

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Kolanovic, Fund Managers Share Bullish Commodities View, Bond Caution

April 17, 2024April 18, 2024

They’re loving commodities these days. The bonds, not so much. “They” are fund managers. Specifically

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1 Comment on Kolanovic, Fund Managers Share Bullish Commodities View, Bond Caution

Highest Mortgage Rates Of 2024 May Be Pulling Demand Forward

April 17, 2024April 17, 2024

Earlier this week, while editorializing around what I (maybe hyperbolically, maybe justifiably) described as an

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4 Comments on Highest Mortgage Rates Of 2024 May Be Pulling Demand Forward

6% Services Inflation Vexes UK As Sunak Looks For ‘Feel-Good’ Rate Cuts

April 17, 2024April 18, 2024

Sticky inflation’s not just a US problem. Services sector price growth in the UK remained

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3 Comments on 63 Services Inflation Vexes UK As Sunak Looks For ‘Feel-Good’ Rate Cuts

Powell Insists Fed Policy’s ‘Restrictive.’ Critics See A Man In Denial

April 16, 2024May 1, 2024

The tedium of central banker soundbites on Tuesday was a bit grating. I wouldn’t call

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7 Comments on Powell Insists Fed Policy’s ‘Restrictive.’ Critics See A Man In Denial

Plunging Cash Levels Sound Alarm For Suddenly Shaky Stock Rally

April 16, 2024April 16, 2024

Don’t look now, but fund manager cash levels are on the brink of triggering a

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1 Comment on Plunging Cash Levels Sound Alarm For Suddenly Shaky Stock Rally

‘Fully Bully’ Fund Managers, Optimistic IMF Defy ‘Gloomy’ Global Prophecies

April 16, 2024April 17, 2024

Fund managers were the most bullish in more than two years early this month. Just

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Leave a Comment on ‘Fully Bully’ Fund Managers, Optimistic IMF Defy ‘Gloomy’ Global Prophecies

Awful New Construction Data Underlines Enduring US Housing Dilemma

April 16, 2024April 17, 2024

The US housing market remains stuck in a kind of limbo. The pace of new

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3 Comments on Awful New Construction Data Underlines Enduring US Housing Dilemma

Bank Of America’s Traders Boast Best Quarter In Years

April 16, 2024April 17, 2024

Bank of America on Tuesday turned in decent results that beat where it counted, although

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2 Comments on Bank Of America’s Traders Boast Best Quarter In Years

China GDP Beat Marred By Woeful Retail Sales Miss

April 15, 2024May 1, 2024

The good news is, the Chinese economy expanded more quickly than anticipated in Q1, if

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4 Comments on China GDP Beat Marred By Woeful Retail Sales Miss

Wilson Sees Turning Point. Says ‘Rates Matter For Stocks Again’

April 15, 2024April 16, 2024

Stocks are concerned about rates again. That’s according to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson. Mike’s a

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1 Comment on Wilson Sees Turning Point. Says ‘Rates Matter For Stocks Again’

The Mighty Bull Staggers: War Worry, Fed Angst Undercut Rally

April 15, 2024May 1, 2024

Markets were jittery on the heels of a weekend defined by terrifying headlines out of

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4 Comments on The Mighty Bull Staggers: War Worry, Fed Angst Undercut Rally

Bear Spots ‘Classic Crowding Out’ In Juiced-Up US Economy

April 15, 2024April 15, 2024

One of several recurring themes in this year’s notes from Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson is

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Leave a Comment on Bear Spots ‘Classic Crowding Out’ In Juiced-Up US Economy

Anatomy Of Wall Street’s ‘Full-Blown War Freakout’

April 15, 2024April 15, 2024

Late last week, I noted that war risk became real for markets. Briefly. It became

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Leave a Comment on Anatomy Of Wall Street’s ‘Full-Blown War Freakout’

US Economy Hot As A Pistol, Retail Sales Beat Suggests

April 15, 2024April 15, 2024

The neutral rate’s higher! Shouted a very strong read on US retail sales to a

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12 Comments on US Economy Hot As A Pistol, Retail Sales Beat Suggests

Goldman Remembers How To Mint Money

April 15, 2024April 16, 2024

Did Goldman just rediscover the magic? Wall Street’s most “revered” firm turned in a set

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Leave a Comment on Goldman Remembers How To Mint Money

China GDP Unveil Tops Macro Agenda As Traders Eye Geopolitics

April 14, 2024April 15, 2024

Headlines will revolve around geopolitics in the days ahead for obvious reasons, but a crowded

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Leave a Comment on China GDP Unveil Tops Macro Agenda As Traders Eye Geopolitics

Regime Maintenance

April 14, 2024May 1, 2024

In the hours after Iran’s Monty Python French taunter-style “counterattack” against Israel, everyone with a

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17 Comments on Regime Maintenance

War, Dissolution Cast Long Shadow On IMF, World Bank Meetings

April 14, 2024April 15, 2024

Recent events have exposed the multilateral institutions tasked with facilitating and preserving global peace and

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1 Comment on War, Dissolution Cast Long Shadow On IMF, World Bank Meetings

Iran Fires Hundreds Of Missiles, Drones Into Israel

April 13, 2024May 1, 2024

“This is likely to unfold over a number of hours,” a spokeswoman for Joe Biden’s

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1 Comment on Iran Fires Hundreds Of Missiles, Drones Into Israel

‘A Pirate Operation’

April 13, 2024April 14, 2024

Pirating. It’s back to pirating for Iran. With the world on edge ahead of an

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2 Comments on ‘A Pirate Operation’

War Risk Becomes Real For Markets

April 12, 2024April 14, 2024

Typically, equities ignore geopolitical risk unless and until there’s a clear transmission channel to markets.

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4 Comments on War Risk Becomes Real For Markets

The Village

April 12, 2024April 14, 2024

The sarcastic derision in macro-market circles is pretty heavy these days. I’d be inclined to

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17 Comments on The Village

‘Frustrated’ Americans Mark Up Their Inflation Outlook. Again.

April 12, 2024April 13, 2024

We’re going to need another revision. The marquee gauge of US consumer moods came up

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1 Comment on ‘Frustrated’ Americans Mark Up Their Inflation Outlook. Again.

Red Flags: Woeful China Trade Figures Underscore Litany Of Concerns

April 12, 2024April 14, 2024

You can shelve your bullish China macro calls. On the heels of another concerning read

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5 Comments on Red Flags: Woeful China Trade Figures Underscore Litany Of Concerns

JPMorgan Underwhelms With NII Guide. Debt Underwriting Strong

April 12, 2024April 16, 2024

JPMorgan fired the starting gun on US earnings season Friday with what looked like a

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Leave a Comment on JPMorgan Underwhelms With NII Guide. Debt Underwriting Strong

War’s Coming

April 11, 2024April 12, 2024

Western democracies, and particularly the US, should consider playing a little offense for a change.

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23 Comments on War’s Coming

The Case Of The Missing Stock Selloff

April 11, 2024April 11, 2024

We “should” be looking at the smoldering wreckage of a meaningful equity drawdown right about

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1 Comment on The Case Of The Missing Stock Selloff

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • WMD on ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks
  • Engineer on Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?
  • NY Jeff on Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?
  • carbpow on ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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