US Services Sector Heats Back Up, Defying Recession Narrative

Shelve the recession narratives: The linchpin of US economic growth held strong in May.

A run of relatively cool first- and second-tier data releases out of the world’s largest economy was interrupted on Wednesday by a robust read on a key gauge of services sector activity.

At 53.8, the ISM print was easily ahead of consensus (51) and represented a convincing return to expansion territory after a fleeting dip below the demarcation line the prior month.

The final read on S&P Global’s services sector gauge, which tipped the re-acceleration on May 23, was 54.8, unchanged from the flash reading and a one-year high.

Notably, the business activity gauge in the ISM release (a subindex) jumped to 61.2, a dramatic 10ppt increase from April. The new orders gauge printed 54.1 from 52.2 the prior month.

“The increase in the composite index in May is a result of notably higher business activity, faster new orders growth, slower supplier deliveries and despite the continued contraction in employment,” ISM’s Anthony Nieves remarked, adding that panelists said business is increasing “overall” even as growth rates “continu[e] to vary by company and industry.”

The employment gauge was the only real disappointment. At 47.1, it’s still in contraction territory. S&P Global’s survey likewise suggested services payrolls are contracting. “It was not all positive in May, however, with services employment down for the second month running as firms wait to see whether the renewed rise in new business will be sustained before committing to new hires,” the release said.

Earlier Wednesday, an uneven update on private sector hiring suggested leisure and hospitality job creation was the weakest since November last month, even as overall hiring for services-sector jobs was solid.

ISM’s prices paid gauge slipped, but just barely. At 58.1, it remains indicative of pervasive price pressures tied to input costs and, relatedly, elevated wage bills. S&P Global’s Andrew Harker underscored the point. “Wage pressures remained a key factor pushing up input costs, which increased sharply again in May and prompted a faster increase in selling prices, providing further evidence that inflation remains sticky.”

Wednesday’s PMI updates came on the heels of a weaker-than-expected read on ISM manufacturing, which remained in contraction territory in May, the 18th month below the 50 threshold in 19.


 

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2 thoughts on “US Services Sector Heats Back Up, Defying Recession Narrative

  1. As noted before, signal-to-noise ratio of macro data leaves something to be desired and chasing MOM wiggles is pointless for most of us. Broadly speaking, it seems like i) employment is slowing/softening to current “still strong”, ii) economic activity is slowing to current “low growth” range, iii) inflation using core PCE is slowly easing to current “one point above target” trend. Seems like the definition of “soft landing”?

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