‘Notable Pockets Of Weakness’ Spotted In US Labor Market

There are “notable pockets of weakness” in the US labor market, ADP said Wednesday, editorializing around a relatively soft headline private hiring print.

At 152,000, the release came up short of consensus. Economists wanted 175,000.

To be sure, 152,000 hardly counts as “bad.” But the miss nevertheless adds to a string of downside first- and second-tier prints which together suggest the US economic colossus is finally losing momentum.

Recall that private hiring picked up meaningfully in February and continued to run warm through April. With May’s release, the three-month average is 184,000, or thereabouts.

It’s worth noting that total private payrolls on ADP’s count were 7.41 million above pre-pandemic levels as of last month.

Under the proverbial hood, the ADP release was mixed. Hiring in manufacturing dove 20,000 in May, the largest drop since July. Leisure and hospitality added just 12,000 jobs, the fewest since November. Information and professional services both cut jobs.

On the pay growth front, ADP sharply revised what looked like anomalous readings for so-called “job changers” this year. The spike in wage growth for that cohort in March now stands at 8.3%, down from double-digits. The series was revised dramatically for April as well.

Pay growth for job “stayers” (i.e., people who don’t quit) was 5% for a third consecutive month. With apologies, the huge revisions to the “changer” series suggest it’s not especially useful. About the only thing you can divine from the figure above is that pay growth’s moderated. Which you already knew.

Wednesday’s data came on the heels of a BLS report which showed job openings hit a new three-year low, while a key metric of labor market tightness eased to levels last seen in June of 2021.

ADP’s Nela Richardson summed things up. “Job gains and pay growth are slowing going into the second half of the year,” she said Wednesday. “The labor market is solid, but we’re monitoring notable pockets of weakness tied to both producers and consumers.”


 

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2 thoughts on “‘Notable Pockets Of Weakness’ Spotted In US Labor Market

  1. I consulted an “expert” in job changing for more pay- to hear, anecdotally, from the people in the street what is going on.
    My daughter, who has changed jobs 3 times for more pay in the past two years (the 3rd change was back to her second employer), reported to me that “it no longer makes sense to try to change jobs for more pay…those situations are no longer readily available”.
    🙂

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