The latest trade data out of China didn’t do much to dispense with the idea that Xi Jinping’s foisting the country’s overcapacity problem on the rest of the world — at the possible expense of local producers abroad.
Exports grew nearly 8% in May in dollar terms from the same month a year ago, Friday’s update from the customs administration showed.
That was far brisker than the 5.7% economists expected and counted as the fastest pace in a year.
Imports, meanwhile, rose just 1.8%, not even half the gain consensus saw, and a marked slowdown from the prior month’s rebound.
This is the same general narrative month after month. The juxtaposition between decent export growth and sluggish imports mirrors the contrast between robust industrial output and lackluster retail sales. China’s experiencing — or maybe “engineering” is better — a so-called “two-speed” recovery. The rest of the world’s being asked to compensate for the country’s domestic demand shortfall by soaking up a tsunami of cheap goods.
That’s a good thing to the extent it’s deflationary. China’s mired in a protracted stretch of factory-gate deflation, and trade partners grappling with above-target inflation at home are more than happy to import some of that deflationary impulse. But not if it means decimating local industries.
EVs are a point of bitter contention. Car exports were the second-highest ever last month, behind only April’s record showing. Both Europe and the US have seen just about enough of that. New tariffs are in the offing.
Appliance shipments soared more than 18% by value last month, and almost 28% by volume. There’s no mystery there: China has a property crisis on its hands, and if people aren’t buying homes, they don’t need appliances. The growth disparity between value and volume pretty clearly suggests exporters are slashing prices.
And it’s not just appliances. It’s everything. The property crisis has also juiced exports of building materials, like steel, and equipment, like excavators. “The quantity of many exports has been rising faster than their value,” The New York Times wrote Friday. “So many containers full of goods are leaving, as fewer come back with imports, that shipping lines have been running short of containers in China.”
Between now and the imposition of new tariffs, exporters will likely try to front-load, which could bolster shipments in the near-term. Needless to say, Beijing will attempt to circumvent and otherwise offset any new levies. Most obviously, China can ship products to places like Mexico and Vietnam, where goods are repackaged and sold on to customers like nothing happened: “Made In China Vietnam.” The Party can also countenance yuan depreciation to water down the impact of new tariffs.
The Party last month took meaningful steps to address the property crisis that’s holding back Chinese consumers. But a lot of analysts and observers doubt it’ll be enough. In the meantime, the outlook for domestic consumption remains grim. “Many restaurants in Shanghai and Beijing are empty even on weekend nights,” the Times noted, adding that “stores have few or no customers, and shopkeepers stand around looking bored.”


