Construction, Rates And The Misnomer That Is ‘Affordable’
Thank lower rates? Maybe. Probably. Sure. New construction data released ahead of the Fed on
‘It Doesn’t Make A Difference’
Jamie Dimon, man of the people? No. Definitely not. Dimon personifies American banking in a
Paging Hassan Nasrallah
“Is your pager hot? Because my pager’s hot.” We talk a lot about how dangerous
Cutting The Left-Tail
Evercore’s Ed Hyman gets it. “If they don’t do 50 tomorrow I’ll be shocked,” Hyman,
Profits, Policy And Priorities
One narrative says corporate profits have virtually never been healthier. It’s hard to argue the
‘Nervous Bulls’ Almost Certain Of Soft Landing
Cash levels ticked down and growth expectations rebounded tentatively from an eight-month low, helping to
US Retail Sales Leave FOMC Narrative Unchanged
Mercifully — because the Fed and traders scarcely needed any additional variables to incorporate while
The Fate Of The World
“It’s truly amazing how the fate of the entire world seems to rest on whether
What’s To Become Of The Stocks?
But what does Mike Wilson think? “Where is Ja?!” (Somebody will get it.) Credit where
Reflexivity Revisited: What Happens If The Fed Disappoints?
I spent some time late last week talking about the Fed’s reflexivity dynamic with markets,
Gamblers Gonna Gamble
You gotta love it. Following last week’s US CPI report, all-knowing, efficient markets were convinced
Everything The Fed Should Consider For The September FOMC Meeting
On Wednesday, the Fed will answer your questions about life, the universe and everything. Or
Don’t Forget The Data
Don’t forget the data. It’s a big week for monetary policy, with the Fed set
Bank Of Japan Rate Guidance Eyed After Chaos. Bank Of England Faces Big QT Decision
The Fed’s not the only game in town this week. On Friday, the Bank of
Did China Just Lose The Growth Target?
How long before they stop reporting the numbers? I’m just joking. I think. But if
Stock Funds Just Saw Their First Outflow Since April
Don’t look now, but global equities just saw their first weekly outflow since April. $3.7
Reflexivity And Risky Ventures
Market participants don’t fully appreciate the Fed’s reflexivity “problem.” I put problem in scare quotes
Demographics Matter
Demographics matter. A lot. And in everything. Elections are no exception. In fact, elections are
It’s Gotta Be 50, Jay: The Case For A Half-Point Fed Cut
“Hey, Jay. Why don’t you just get started?” Asking for Bill Dudley. With just days
America’s Inflation Worries Fade With Fed On Deck
At 2.7%, Americans’ year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to the lowest since December of 2020 early
Stratospheric Cash Mountain Grows Still Taller As MMF Inflows Persist
It just keeps going and going and going and… US money funds saw a sixth
Communist Embrace
“Common prosperity.” That’s what Xi Jinping’s ostensibly trying to promote and propagate in China. He’d
Nvidia Has ‘Central Bank-Like Power’ In Modern Markets
Earlier this month, I described the size (and, by extension, the index influence) of Nvidia’s
Producer Prices Warm Up, Jobless Claims Tick Higher In Disagreeable US Data
If hope still floated for a 50bps rate cut from Jerome Powell next week, Thursday’s
ECB Delivers Second Rate Cut. Will Wing It From Here
The ECB on Thursday cut rates for the second time in three meetings, as expected.
Now Or Later, The Market Will Get The Cuts It Wants
“A bigger increase in cyclically-sensitive shelter prices will make it harder for Fed officials to
As Rates Fall, What Will Become Of US Housing?
If you want to argue that orthodoxy has it backwards when it comes to rates
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