Mercifully — because the Fed and traders scarcely needed any additional variables to incorporate while pondering the “correct” size of Wednesday’s rate cut — there were no big surprises in US retail sales data released on Tuesday.
The headline nominal spending print did top consensus with a small gain against economists’ expectations for a 0.2% pullback, but the ex-autos print was a tepid 0.1%, less than forecast.
The prior month’s headline gain was revised to reflect a 1.1% advance, an even stronger showing than the originally-reported 0.96% gain.
“Miscellaneous” and nonstore retailers were strong in August. Everything else not so much. Just five of 13 categories showed a gain. Spending at restaurants and bars, the only services sector category in the report, was flat.
The control group — the relevant aggregate for GDP tracking — posted a 0.3% advance, matching expectations.
Again, this release was “consensus enough” to keep the Fed narrative unchanged. The print garnered outsized attention as the last top-tier release the Fed will see before tomorrow’s decision. Suffice to say it didn’t move any needles that weren’t already moved.
As BMO’s Ian Lyngen put it, “it was a strong-enough read to render the information a non-event for the FOMC’s debate between 25bps and 50bps.”


