It may not look very dramatic, but looks can be deceiving. It’s all about France
Category: le pen
“Buridan’s Ass, Meet Scylla And Charybdis”
As I noted earlier on Friday, this week provided nothing in the way of clarity
A French Kiss Leaves Global Risk Queasy On Friday
If you were looking for clarity with regard to President Donald Trump’s policies or for any kind
“What Are You Paying For?!” One Bank Asks Whether French CDS Is Worthless
What protection are you paying for? Marine Le Pen’s proposal to take France out of the euro is once again raising questions about whether CDS will “do what it says on the tinâ€. As on previous occasions, we fear the answer is “not necessarilyâ€
Holy Sh*t Chart Of The Day
This may be “familiar behavior for the credit market”, but I can’t help but flag this as a pretty alarming indicator regarding the credit risk surrounding the upcoming French elections.
One Trader Warns On Market Myopia: “I’ll Make The Money, You Manage The Risk”
Ok, it’s just getting comical now. Everyone is saying what I’ve been saying for months
“Genuinely Scary Moments Are Ahead,” One Trader Warns
“Theoretically, Europe is set to avoid each of this year’s political pitfalls — but the scares will be genuine. The euro will continue to slide in line with the rising long- term risk-premium around the region, while the bond markets flare-ups will be acute ahead of specific dates.”
I Like My Term Structures Kinky
I’ve talked quite a bit about how the US equity market is grossly mispricing political
Tragic Irony: How Trump And Le Pen Perpetuate Radical Islam’s Apocalyptic World View
One of the most tragically ironic things about populism anno 2017 is the extent to which it reflects the very same radicalism its adherents claim to be fighting against.
The French Connection
With French election risk front and center, and having spent what is probably an inordinate
“This Time, The Experts Aren’t Exaggerating”: A Former Goldmanite’s Warning To Markets
“Both of these inferences are wrong. The risk of a President Le Pen is far lower than the ex ante risk of Brexit or President Trump was last year, but the consequence of her winning would be far worse.”
“They’re Stealing Our Jobs!”: Populism And False Prophets
What they’re really doing is grabbing power for themselves and taking advantage of “the people” who, thanks to a number of factors, are vulnerable to manipulation. They are false prophets.
Chart Check (Behind The Curve)
As usual…
You Are Being Politically Exploited
“While globalisation is by no means the only factor behind the increase in inequality, it is easy to exploit politically”…
Chart Check (Eat Your OATs)
Take a bow populism…
1.7 Trillion Reasons Why This Whole Populist Thing Is A Terrible Idea
But while populist candidates spewing nationalist vitriol likely won’t do anything to change the fact that Mark Zuckerberg is Mark Zuckerberg and you’re… well… not, do you know what they will do? They’ll end up destroying what little everyday people do have by throwing the entire global order into chaos. And that’s not hyperbole.
Daily Kickstart (China Grateful For Meandering Dollar, “Frexit” Fears Subside)
The overnight session was largely a snoozer on Thursday (no pun intended). The dollar looks
Daily Kickstart (Chinese FX Reserves Fall Below $3 Trillion, Euro On The Back Foot, Senate Weighs Risk Of School Grizzly Attacks)
The “big” news overnight should have been Chinese FX reserves just like China should be back
Chart Check (Trading A French Kiss)
What would you do with a French kiss from Marine Le Pen?
Daily Kickstart (French Kiss)
“Let’s make it a bad souvenir”…
A Cliffs Notes Guide To Europe’s Electoral Trial By Fire
While it’s certainly tempting to focus squarely on the political upheaval that’s sweeping the United
Populism At Work: Sovereign Risk Rises In France
The market will render its own judgement…
10 Black Swans
The amusing thing about this (to me anyway) is that it is to a certain extent emblematic of markets’ overwhelming tendency to misprice the tails. These pieces almost read like a guide to the unthinkable – “here’s what happens if everything just goes to complete sh*t”…
Where Liberals Screwed Up
Perhaps trying to frighten voters away from the populist cause by referencing dire economic consequences isn’t the best way to go about things when there are plenty of other common sense arguments for preserving a progressive agenda and for cultivating multiculturalism.
Western Democracy’s Last Stand: Merkel Versus Trump
The irony in all of this is that should Merkel lose the battle, the savior of Western democratic ideals may well end up being a communist…
Thursday Humor: Epic Headline Hockey
Fake news?
“Fertile Ground For Conspiracies And Revolutions”
Whether or not we, as a society, can overcome the temptation to surrender our future to a succession of demagogues remains to be seen. And indeed we may be but one tragedy away from seeing the momentum turn irreversibly in favor of politicians who seek to capitalize on fear and intolerance.
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