It kind of feels like everyone is ready to get this week on the books.
Category: le pen
“I’d Tax Every Benz,” “It’s A Corpse That Still Moves”: Are You Getting The Truth On Trade?
“At the same time, tariffs would weigh on US growth. If we assume that Mexico and China retaliate with equivalent tariffs, this would substantially reduce demand for US exports, depressing US GDP by around 0.7pp by 2019. In fact, tariffs would likely hit US GDP so sharply that the Federal Reserve would be prompted to reduce interest rates to cushion the blow—despite an increase in inflation.”
Exploiting Stupidity: How Populists Prey On The Uneducated
Folks like Le Pen and Trump and Wilders know that the most efficient way to exploit these fears for political gain is to tap those voters who are least likely to push back – i.e. to incite a panic among the uneducated who think that because a woman is wearing a burqa she must also be wearing a suicide vest.
WTF Chart Check: Don’t Forget About France
Lest it should slip your mind that for every “success” Trump has, the odds of a French electoral “accident” increase, consider once again the disconnect between asset prices and policy uncertainty in Paris as illustrated here by HY spreads versus the EPU…
Heisenberg Challenge: Spot The Odd One Out
I’ve talked a ton about this, but I think it’s important to continually track how different assets are or aren’t pricing in the risk associated with a prospective Marine Le Pen victory in France. Let’s try a fun game…
Political Ping Pong, A “Pounding,” And A Market Awaiting Trump
Well, we start in FX land on Monday morning and as has become the norm
I Told You So: “Handicapping Political Risk” Is The New “Central-Bank Watching”
“Perhaps it’s emblematic of the times: Central-bank watching is passé, while handicapping political risk is en vogue.”
Lunatic Le Pen “Cannot Possibly” Win – But Don’t Tell VSTOXX Futures
In other words, the market is trying to learn from its mistakes. We were caught off guard by the Brexit vote and Trump’s victory, so now, we’re seeing relatively large moves as traders’ collective desire to avoid the pitfalls of underestimating the probability of a tail event is manifest in the amplification of tiny blips in poll numbers.
Chart Check: Brexit Versus Le Pen
Is Le Pen “mightier” than … err… Le Brexit?
Topless Protester To Le Pen: “Bitch We Ain’t Buyin’ It”
“Fake feminist!”
“Frexit”: Bank Runs, Deposit Blocks, Capital Controls. Any Questions?
“We have some experience in this domain: the example of Greece in the summer of 2015. That is not a happy precedent.”
Spot The Dumb Money
You know what they say…
Reflation Frustration
This is probably a decent time to start asking yourself if the narrative still makes
As French Election Risk Plunges, One Heisenberg Reader Called It
Wax on, wax off. Risk on, risk off. I said it on Sunday: this week
Heisenberg Challenge: Spot The Moment The French Election Changed Course
I said this week would be all about French politics and by God, the market hasn’t disappointed…
“Le” Screwed: Markets Nervous Ahead Of Fed Minutes As Bookies Put Le Pen’s Chances Even With Rivals
“Good morning.” And also: “I told you so.” This whole idea that because Marine Le
Crazy Vs. Crazy: Are Things Really More “Uncertain” In Europe Than They Are In The US?
How can a market “take into consideration all potential future events”? Obviously it can’t. That’s absurd. That said, stocks should be expected to discount what we might call “known unknowns.” That is, events that we know are likely to cause turbulence but that also admit of some indeterminacy regarding outcomes. Things that would fall into that category include the French elections and US tax reform.
Chart Check: Politics At Work
This is what happens when political risk trumps economic data…
“You’ll Like It Too!” Ireland Now Less Risky Than France
Tired of sticking around in OATs as spreads to bunds balloon and Marine Le Pen’s chances of becoming President tick higher taking us ever closer to a French redenomination event and subsequent €1.7 trillion sovereign default?
Dollar On A Harker High, European Economy Hums Despite Political Turmoil, Kuroda Continues To Confuse
Well, that escalated quickly. It wasn’t hard to predict what would set the tone overnight.
“Run-For-Your-Life Affair” Continues In France, Fed’s Mester Hints At Hikes, US Vacations
“This weekend was an all-out, run-for-your-life affair.” That’s from Yves-Marie Cann, head of political studies at
Here’s What’s Coming Up For Markets
“Don’t be fooled by the the holiday-shortened trading week in the US. Next week promises to give investors plenty to watch, including the Greek bailout, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s testimony, retail earnings and Warren Buffett’s annual letter.”
“Euro Exit Would Ruin France,” More Russian Hacking, And Other Fun Overnight News
“Exiting the euro, presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s project, would ruin France, Bruno Le Maire, adviser of French Republican candidate Francois Fillon, says on Europe 1 radio.”
Thinking Globally In A World Gone Mad
One of the themes I harp on quite a lot in these pages is the
Chart Check (“Up, Up And Away”)
“Le Pen is mightier than le sword”…
“Has The Whole World Gone Crazy?!”
“Has the whole world gone crazy?! Am I the only one around here who gives a sh*t about the rules?!”
The Week That Was: “The Hardest Thing To Do Is Justify Hedging”
Well, it’s been one hell of a week. We started on a sugar high thanks
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