Chart Check (“Up, Up And Away”)

We’re keeping it all French, all the time over here when it comes to chart posts.

As you’re well aware (and if you aren’t, do yourself a favor and get up to speed), Friday brought some bad news when it comes to the chances that France will elect a populist lunatic who harbors a deep-seated desire to take the country out of the EMU and trigger a massive €1.7 trillion sovereign default (for the latest on the effect this would have on French corporate debt, see here). In short, the prospect of a Leftist alliance came up again yesterday, and if such an alliance were to materialize, it could well boost Le Pen’s chances in the May 7 runoff.

Well, I mentioned that the news triggered another bout of widening in OAT-bund spreads. Below, find an up to date chart that plots this spread against Le Pen’s chances of becoming the French president.

lepen

(BofAML)

Up, up and away.

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2 thoughts on “Chart Check (“Up, Up And Away”)

  1. “the prospect of a Leftist alliance came up again yesterday, and if such an alliance were to materialize, it could well boost Le Pen’s chances in the May 7 runoff.”

    Wouldn’t a consolidation of the leftish-parties reduce vote splitting and, therefore, decrease Le Pen’s chances?

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