Heisenberg Challenge: Spot The Moment The French Election Changed Course

Heisenberg Challenge: Spot The Moment The French Election Changed Course

I said this week would be all about French politics and by God, the market hasn’t disappointed.

Here’s Wednesday’s Heisenberg challenge: spot the moment when centrist François Bayrou said this:

I have two paths, to stand myself or to look for an unusual solution. I have decided to offer Emmanuel Macron an alliance. I have examined for several weeks all the elements allowing me to judge our country and I want to say at what point the seriousness of the situation has hit me. Never in the 50 years past has the democracy in France known such a situation.



Here was the immediate reaction across assets:


Shortly thereafter we got this:


And more via Bloomberg:

  • The euro reversed an early drop after centrist politician Francois Bayrou bowed out of the presidential race in France to support the campaign against the populist National Front.
  • The common currency reversed losses against the dollar and the majority of its other G-10 peers as the Bloomberg euro index extended a rebound from a fresh low for the year and German bund yields bounced back from records
  • Focus remains on French elections, with recent polls showing anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen closing the gap with her rivals in the race toward the May 7 final round of elections, spurring anxieties among investors and currency managers
  • Bayrou said he offered to team up with independent candidate Emmanuel Macron amid what he called “a risky situation”

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