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10 Black Swans

The amusing thing about this (to me anyway) is that it is to a certain extent emblematic of markets' overwhelming tendency to misprice the tails. These pieces almost read like a guide to the unthinkable - "here's what happens if everything just goes to complete sh*t"...

I've seen this posted elsewhere, but I think it's worth highlighting here for those who might not have seen it yet. For around a quarter century, Credit Suisse has dared to imagine what could happen to derail their consensus views on markets. In other words, they've dared to imagine that tail risks materialize. The amusing thing about this (to me anyway) is that it is to a certain extent emblematic of markets' overwhelming tendency to misprice the tails. These pieces almost read like a guide to the unthinkable - "here's what happens if everything just goes to complete sh*t," or "here's what happens if everything goes precisely right at every turn." Of course the reality is that reliance on the bell curve leads us horribly astray when it comes to understanding both the impact and the likelihood of black swans coming to call. Given that, I'm not sure Credit Suisse's title ("Surprises For 2017") is accurate (would any of the 10 events listed below really be that "surprising" if we understand risk?). In any event, below find the list which you'll note also includes the bank's baseline assumptions to remind you of just how "crazy" things would have to get for the surprises to ma
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7 comments on “10 Black Swans

  1. Adam says:

    All these black swans are in the wrong direction,,indicative of everyone’s presence on the same side of the boat, the real black swans would be on the other direction

  2. Anonymous says:

    I hope we can get through the next 4 years without the US economy crashing and new wars started.

    • J. Bell says:

      “We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones — and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate completely from the face of the Earth.” — President Trump in is Inaugural speech.

      Obviously, that means war. If it means that Islam becomes the enemy, then it means one huge mess.

      “I watched when the World Trade Center came tumbling down,” the Republican presidential candidate said at a Nov. 21 rally in Birmingham, Ala. “And I watched in Jersey City, N.J., where thousands and thousands of people were cheering as that building was coming down. Thousands of people were cheering.”

      Never forget those non-existent Muslims, that only live in the imaginations of Trump and Breitbart followers. If Trump starts to persecute American Muslims, then we will have an even bigger mess.

  3. Jack Torrance says:

    By definition a financial black swan is unexpected, hence a predicted black swan is an oxymoron. ‘Nuff said. Credit Suisse should perhaps read Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work first!

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