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The win streak is over.


If You Thought That Was Crazy: Full Week Ahead Preview

How about a little more fun?

“America, Fuck Yeah!” Congress Thinks Funding Government May Be Good Idea After All

Last week, it was starting to look like traders had reached peak negativity with regard to government ineptitude. Of course you wouldn’t have known it from looking at benchmark equity indices. But if you drilled down below the index level, nearly every trade tethered to Trumpian reflation had come off. That led one trader to say…

Japan Dumps US Debt In Longest Streak Since June 2013

As you’re no doubt aware, Japanese investors have been dumping US debt. “Data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance confirmed this past week that Japanese investors sold around ¥1.3 trillion ($11.52 billion) in foreign bonds between Jan. 21 and Jan. 28, taking net sales for the past 12 weeks to more than ¥3.7 trillion, the largest…

No, Janet Yellen Does Not Need To Wait On Donald Trump

Think back to last month. I know that’s really f*cking hard because with Trump in office, each week feels like two years, but do your best. You may recall that one of the arguments I and others made regarding the outlook for the Fed, revolved around the extent to which financial conditions looked entirely different following…

Double Entendre? Citi “Goes Nuclear” With 5s/30s Steepener

Well Citi has seen enough. In an amusingly understated new piece the bank explains why “curve steepening will go nuclear.” That’s a real quote. See previously, the bank was ok with playing for a steepening of the 10s/30s curve on the back of expectations for a supply glut tied to Trumpian fiscal stimulus. Citi was “cautious”…

Goldman CEO Decries Trump Immigration Policy

“This is not a policy we support, and I would note that it has already been challenged in federal court, and some of the order has been enjoined at least temporarily. “

Chart Check (Going, Going, Gone)

Score one for the shorts…

Is The Record Treasury Short A Contrarian Indicator? This Scatter Plot Has The Answer

One of the most asked questions (well, I don’t have any data on that, but I assume a lot of people are asking) is this: is the record short a contrarian indicator?

10 Black Swans

The amusing thing about this (to me anyway) is that it is to a certain extent emblematic of markets’ overwhelming tendency to misprice the tails. These pieces almost read like a guide to the unthinkable – “here’s what happens if everything just goes to complete sh*t”…

Daily Kickstart (ECB Preview; Why Did Tarzan And Suicide Squad Suck So Bad?)

It feels quiet out there on Thursday morning. On Wednesday, a fairly potent one-two punch from CPI data and Janet Yellen (she’ll speak again on Thursday evening) pushed Treasury yields higher across the curve and I for one, will be watching to see the market’s reaction to comments from Trump Treasury pick Steven Mnuchin who faces a Senate Finance…

The Trend May Bend, “But Will It Break”?

“Trends go through life cycles. There’s more to them than just a big move that happens because some market theme becomes all the rage.”

Chart Check (A History Of Major Treasury Selloffs)

Ok look, it’s anyone’s guess where yields are going to be in 12 months. Rates strategists are tying themselves in knots trying to process all of the incoming information. The list of variables in the reaction function seems to be growing by the day. There’s Fed hikes (how many?), Trump (fiscal policy? deregulation?), China (devaluation?…

2016 Vs. 2017: YTD Returns

Anything would have been better than last year…

Massive Treasury Short Now At 4 Standard Deviations

If there’s one thing leveraged funds are damn sure of, it’s that short Treasurys is the way to go in the new year.