As stocks advance to new record highs amid an ongoing, two-day sigh of relief tied to the fact that the world didn’t end over the weekend, it’s worth noting that there are signs of investor caution despite what the benchmarks are screaming at you.Â
“James Comeyâ€™s testimony has been portrayed as the making or breaking of the current presidency. Total vindication or that Perry Mason moment when he tearfully breaks down under questioning, repudiates his opening statement and confesses all. No one listening in today is going to budge one inch in their appraisal of our state of affairs.”
“To be fair, we still have loads of quantitative easing going on and the world remains a scary place. But itâ€™s always been a scary place. We just have selective, as well as short, memories. And if black swans remain your major investing concern, then economic numbers are of very little import.”
“So on a morning of relative calm with S&P 500 futures trading at all-time highs, I thought Iâ€™d take the opportunity to focus on a few potential canaries in the coal mine of risk-on to watch.”
I also question whether bragging about having “f*ck you money” (which Taleb does in his books) is the type of thing befitting of a man who aspires to a kind of intellectual high ground that he seems to think the rest of us can’t possibly attain no matter how many times we read his work.
The amusing thing about this (to me anyway) is that it is to a certain extent emblematic of markets’ overwhelming tendency to misprice the tails. These pieces almost read like a guide to the unthinkable – “here’s what happens if everything just goes to complete sh*t”…