Fund Managers Add Tail Risk Hedges At Fastest Pace In 14 Months

As stocks advance to new record highs amid an ongoing, two-day sigh of relief tied to the fact that the world didn’t end over the weekend, it’s worth noting that there are signs of investor caution despite what the benchmarks are screaming at you. 


5 Tail Risks That Could ‘Spoil The Party’ & Why One Bank ‘Stopped Worrying’

“We continue to stand by the message that a window of opportunity remains open”…

Trader: “The Problem Is Ours”

“James Comey’s testimony has been portrayed as the making or breaking of the current presidency. Total vindication or that Perry Mason moment when he tearfully breaks down under questioning, repudiates his opening statement and confesses all. No one listening in today is going to budge one inch in their appraisal of our state of affairs.”

Emerging Euphoria? Largest EM Debt ETF Got Largest Inflow Of The Year On Friday

Carry on.

4 Black Swans And Why “Trumpflation” Is No Match For The End Of “Xiflation”

Well, SocGen is out with their Global Economic Outlook which, as you may or may not be aware, usually includes a picture of a bell curve with some swans on it. I’m skeptical that anyone actually reads these things. As Reuters wrote earlier this year, “about 40,000 research reports are produced every week by the world’s…

Trader: “The World’s A Scary Place,” But That’s Always Been The Case

“To be fair, we still have loads of quantitative easing going on and the world remains a scary place. But it’s always been a scary place. We just have selective, as well as short, memories. And if black swans remain your major investing concern, then economic numbers are of very little import.”

Only A “Black Swan” Can Stop Me Now!

“So what would it take to upset this perfect equilibrium? Something the market is not expecting, something completely out of left field, an unknown unknown”…

“Listen! Do You Smell Something?” Canaries In The Coal Mine

“So on a morning of relative calm with S&P 500 futures trading at all-time highs, I thought I’d take the opportunity to focus on a few potential canaries in the coal mine of risk-on to watch.”

When (Black) Swans Cry

I also question whether bragging about having “f*ck you money” (which Taleb does in his books) is the type of thing befitting of a man who aspires to a kind of intellectual high ground that he seems to think the rest of us can’t possibly attain no matter how many times we read his work.

What Trade War? Market Is Mispricing The Swans (Again)

If I’ve said it once (and I’m pretty sure I have), I’ve said it a thousand times: the market is terrible at pricing the tails. And while, by definition, you can’t price in “black” swans, you can price in “grey” ones (aside: do yourself a favor and use the Nassim Taleb lexicon with caution because frankly,…

Top Strategist: Macro Is Running The Show And You “Should Not Be Surprised”

“Investing is macro and macro is geopolitics. If you don’t get that, you’re going to be perpetually behind the curve going forward.

10 Black Swans

The amusing thing about this (to me anyway) is that it is to a certain extent emblematic of markets’ overwhelming tendency to misprice the tails. These pieces almost read like a guide to the unthinkable – “here’s what happens if everything just goes to complete sh*t”…

Uncertainty, “The Highly Improbable”, Goldman Sachs, And Some Swamp Draining

The “highly improbable” has become more probable lately. At least that’s my contention. The paradox – and I’ve discussed this with investors both online and in person – is that despite the growing sense of uncertainty, the VIX is depressed and market participants are positioned as if they’re absolutely sure of where things are headed. Note the…

Black Swans Everywhere: Hedge Fund Positions By Standard Deviation

There’s been no shortage of commentary both in these pages and elsewhere about just how one-sided positioning has become around the Trump reflation narrative. In fact, it’s all anyone cares to talk about. And that’s not just my imagination. Nearly every piece of research coming out of the sellside contains some reference to the reflation…

One Trader’s Message To Markets: No, This Is Not A “Bad Dream”

Normally, my sentiments with regard to markets align pretty closely with those of former FX trader and Bloomberg contributor Richard Breslow. Not this morning.