Black Swans Everywhere: Hedge Fund Positions By Standard Deviation

There’s been no shortage of commentary both in these pages and elsewhere about just how one-sided positioning has become around the Trump reflation narrative.

In fact, it’s all anyone cares to talk about. And that’s not just my imagination. Nearly every piece of research coming out of the sellside contains some reference to the reflation trade.

Between that, the incessant news coverage of the inauguration, and Trump’s Twitter feed, I wonder if we haven’t reached “peak Trump.” Actually, God help us if we haven’t – it’s hard to imagine how one man could possibly become any more ubiquitous.

Perhaps the unending media/market Trump-a-thon is one reason why, despite the fact that yields and the dollar are down on the year (i.e. the market seems to be questioning the reflation narrative), positioning is as extreme as ever.

For those interested in how hedge funds are positioned, look no further than the following charts from SocGen which depict the gap between the 2 and 20 crowd’s net long/ short positions and their historical average net positions expressed in standard deviations:

positve

(Charts: SocGen)

Is it just me, or does that seem like a whole lot of multi-sigma events?

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