“Fertile Ground For Conspiracies And Revolutions”

Earlier today, in “How The Alt-Right Blogosphere Is Destroying Society,” I outlined the rise of the alt-right blogosphere and explained why it’s a threat to civility, progress, and rationality.

I also warned that thanks in no small part to sites like Breitbart News and its progeny, the alt-right harangue will likely now focus on helping to bolster the prospects for populist candidates in France, the Netherlands, and Germany, where Angela Merkel stands as the last beacon of hope for Western democracy which, as unlikely as this sounds, faces an existential threat from the rising tide of nationalism.

Whether or not we, as a society, can overcome the temptation to surrender our future to a succession of demagogues remains to be seen. And indeed we may be but one tragedy away from seeing the momentum turn irreversibly in favor of politicians who seek to capitalize on fear and intolerance. I shudder to think how quickly Frauke Petry’s already bright star would rise should there be a Paris-style attack in Berlin.

frauke

(Petry)

Following last month’s attack on a Berlin Christmas market, the AfD’s Marcus Pretzell posted the following message on Twitter:

merkel

That’s a rough translation. More precisely it says “These are Merkel’s dead.”

With that, consider the following excerpts from a recent Citi note which describes the mood in Europe:

Rising rejection towards globalization/immigration – This has been a common trend across Europe and in other advanced economies, illustrated recently by the Trump election. According to the latest Eurobarometer (in May), immigration is the second most important issue faced by countries in the EU (unemployment is the first), escalating from the fifth position in 2012. Such perceptions are likely to have been aggravated by the refugee/immigration crisis in 2015. Eurostat data show that the foreign-born population resident in the EU has increased by 9% between 2009 and 2015 to 10% of total population, up by around 20% in the UK (to 13%), Sweden (to 16%) and Denmark (to 11%). In addition, public aversion towards globalization remains very high in Europe, with around 45% of EU citizens thinking globalization represents a threat, according to a poll conducted in August by Dalia Research for the Bertelsmann Foundation. Interestingly, among those believing globalization is a threat, 53% see immigration as a major challenge while 54% feel ‘alienated’. Across countries, perceptions of globalization are the most negative in Austria, France and Poland (see Figure 6).

Low trust in institutions and elites – Lack of confidence/trust in political and business elites, ‘experts’, as well as the media has also featured as a resonant theme in the various political events this year. The resilience so far of the UK economy in the aftermath of the Brexit vote – against general warnings/projections (including ours) of a sharp short-term economic slowdown – and the inaccuracy of polls in predicting various electoral outcomes, are recent examples of potential catalysts in the deteriorating public perception against ‘elites’. According to recent data from the Edelman Trust Barometer, less than 50% of the general population in France (41%, see Figure 7), Germany (42%), the UK (42%), Spain (46%) and Italy (49%) trust the institutions of business, government, media and NGOs. Historically, low trust societies have been fertile ground for conspiracy theories as well revolutions in the most extreme cases.

And don’t forget, where globalization is a blessing, de-globalization is a curse…

global

(Graphics: Citi)

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2 thoughts on ““Fertile Ground For Conspiracies And Revolutions”

  1. People in most developed countries are looking at the same data as we are in terms how QE 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 or any other number you want to give it does nothing in their eyes for their lives. They see central banks getting bailed out when they screw-up, they then see those same banks lending money to people who will never pay it back. TOO BIG TO FAIL!!! In some people’s view NONE OF THIS SHIT HELPS ME. All this money for everyone but me. I hear it all the time, yet when you ask them about saving they look at you like you are crazy. It is not about free lunches it’s about being lied to day after day. This is a very dangerous time people are fed-up and as Bob Dylan sings “When you ain’t got nothing you got nothing to lose”.

    • This is a very sad and uncertain time for people. The liberal tradition of democratic institutions constructed since the end of WWII is facing serious challenges around the world. While this has been termed Populism, it has significant fascist overtones of nationalism that are very troubling. The whole concept of globalism has developed quickly, and it is being challenged by those who feel left behind. This is also accompanied by accelerating automation and digital development that is resulting in disruptive economic and market changes causing massive redistribution of wealth.

      This is a very dangerous time for all of us.

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