The consensus narrative around the latest vintage of the Fed’s senior loan officer survey is
Category: economy
Fed Gets Disastrous Sentiment Report As Inflation Expectations Jump
In a decidedly unwelcome development reminiscent of a fateful Friday in June of 2022, University
Jump In Jobless Claims, Slower PPI Nod To Elusive US Disinflation
US producer prices rose less than expected and jobless claims exceeded estimates, in a round
US Inflation Is Nonevent Amid Benign Super-Core Measures
US consumer prices rose in line with expectations last month, data out Wednesday showed. I
Americans Still Have Half A Trillion To Spend
Americans are still sitting on half a trillion in excess savings, a stash that could
Lending Standards Tighten Further As Demand Collapses, Banks Fret
The most anticipated senior loan officer opinion survey in recent memory showed the share of
Unsolved Macro Mystery Is Key To Inflation Puzzle
Even after watching it play out, and to somewhat disastrous effect in the inflation data,
Americans’ Credit Card Balances Exploded Higher Amid SVB Failure
Consumer credit rose far more than expected in the US during a month defined by
Jobs Report Rekindles Wage-Price Spiral Fears
The US economy added 253,000 jobs in April, according to scorching-hot figures released on Friday.
Greedflation ‘Melting The Glue Of Social Cohesion,’ Albert Edwards Warns
SocGen’s Albert Edwards is passionate about “Greedflation” or, more to the point, about highlighting the
Americans Do Worry About Bank Safety After All
The percentage of Americans with more than $250,000 in their bank accounts may be vanishingly
US Services Sector Still Expanding, Inflation ‘Concerningly Sticky’
A key gauge of services sector activity in the world’s largest economy was broadly consistent
US Private Hiring Jumps ‘Aggressively,’ Pay Growth Drops
US private sector employers added twice as many jobs as expected in April, data released
The System Is Falling Apart
We need to update, refresh and modernize our systems and thinking. It occurs to me
US Labor Market Takes Another Step Down Long Road To Normal
For the second consecutive month, US job openings fell more than expected, leaving the door
‘Season Of Contradictions’ Grips US Factories As Stagflation Looms
US factory activity contracted for a sixth consecutive month in April. That was the bad
Traders Brace For Tsunami Of Data In FOMC Week
Traders will drown in big data this week. Not the kind ChatGPT leverages to churn
Taiwan, M2 And Other ‘Recession Now’ Canaries
Infallible or not, the yield curve is a cliché as a recession indicator. Indeed, those
Data Suggests US Inflation Firmly Entrenched. Sorry.
US labor costs increased more than expected in Q1, according to crucial quarterly compensation figures
Europe Walks ‘Along The Rim’ Of Stagflation
Top-tier macro updates out of Europe reflected varying degrees of economic resilience, even as stagflation
Markets Handed Stagflationary GDP Report
The US economy grew less briskly than expected in Q1, the advance read on first
US Pending Home Sales Plunge On Lack Of Available Houses
Existing US home sales may be set to fall during the spring buying season. Or
Banks Face New Era Of Run Risk In Always-Connected World
Maybe it’s a dearth of other bad market news to monetize, maybe it’s a genuine
The Recession That Never Came
Another day, another reminder that a US recession is just around the corner. Allegedly. I’m
New US Home Sales Surge. Average Prices Jump Back Near Record
New home sales in the US soared almost 10% last month, as lower mortgage rates
Surprise! US Home Prices Are Rising Again
US home prices unexpectedly rose in February, backward-looking data released on Tuesday showed. I’m not
A Fragile Equilibrium Meets Key Data As Traders Await Fed
Fed officials will be in their pre-meeting communications moratorium this week, which is just as

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