It’s Thanksgiving week in the US, and longtime readers know just how I feel about
Category: economy
Rusty Nails
Another month, another robust read on US services sector activity. The flash print on S&P
Americans Dig Deep, Buy Homes
Americans bought some houses last month, God bless ’em. Existing US home sales, which’ve spent
Fanciful Claims
US jobless claims came in low. Again. Again, again. Thursday’s initial filers print was just
Knock-Knock-Knockin’ On Seven’s Door
It wasn’t all that long ago that five-handle mortgage rates seemed like a real possibility
Red-Lining
America has a builder president again. So, naturally, builder sentiment improved in November. If you’ve
How AI Destroys Humanity: An Interview With ChatGPT
As regular readers are aware, I began experimenting with OpenAI’s image generation platform DALL-E in
Chinese Consumers Show Signs Of Life, But It Ain’t ‘Common Prosperity’
I’m pretty unforgiving by now when it comes to face-value assessments of monthly macro releases
(Shopping) Bag Holders
The last macro update of the week from the world’s largest economy beat on the
There’s A Storm Coming, Jay
Jerome Powell stood up in front of some people and read from a script on
No ‘Guts,’ No Glory
Data. Who needs it? Not America’s data-dependent monetary authority, that’s for sure. Just ask this
Save Us, Don!
“Voters aren’t stupid.” So said SocGen’s Albert Edwards on Thursday. I can’t speak for voters
Charge It To The Game
If you were curious, Americans had nearly $1.2 trillion in credit card debt as of
Core Inflation Stuck As Fed Leaves Job Unfinished
Underlying inflation in the US ran warm again in October, this week’s marquee macro release
Fed Consumer Poll Paints Upbeat Picture
The New York Fed released its consumer expectations report on Tuesday. Who’s excited?! These releases
Grab ‘Em By The Surplus
“I think it is mainly down to Trump. The threat is becoming more real.” So
Rope: Read And Understand Operator’s Manual Before Using
Donald Trump will command a majority of headlines in the days ahead, but a bevy
To Shop Or Not To Shop
The US consumer mood brightened early this month, according to the preliminary read on the
Surprise! US Services Sector Still Going Strong
The US services sector is holding up well, data released on Tuesday showed. That’s not
US Factory Recession Worsens, Morphs Into Stagflation
Widgets. They don’t make ’em like they used to. They don’t make ’em where they
Thank You, Hurricanes
The US economy added virtually no jobs in October on net, according to data which
Where’s The Fire Now?
I’m a broken record: The Fed should keep rates unchanged at the November policy meeting.
Necessary But Not Sufficient
Good news for a Fed that was (probably) going to cut anyway: Jerome Powell’s favorite
ECB Flummoxed By Abrupt Data U-Turn
A warm GDP release and now an inflation overshoot. Maybe the ECB should’ve waited for
Free-Spending Americans, Blockbuster Hiring May Complicate Fed Decision
The US economy’s doing pretty well. In aggregate. Note the caveat: In aggregate. There’s absolutely
In Europe, A Dead Cat Bounce?
For the longest time, Europe’s moribund growth profile meant the ECB’s biggest worry was deflation
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