The US economy added virtually no jobs in October on net, according to data which the BLS described as hopelessly distorted, albeit not in those words.

Officially, the headline NFP print was 12,000 for last month. That was below estimates. Consensus was 100,000, but I’m not sure that’s especially meaningful here. The range was -10,000 (that’s negative 10,000) to 180,000.

The release came with lengthy notes about hurricanes Helene and Milton, which “might” (just maybe) have impacted the numbers. “The initial establishment survey collection rate for October was well below average [but] collection rates were similar in storm-affected areas and unaffected areas,” the BLS noted, on the way to suggesting the “largest influence” on the data collection rate was a short collection period.

There were no changes made to the methodology. Payrolls in “some industries” were probably impacted by the storms, but it simply isn’t “possible to quantify the net effect” on key aggregates because, as the BLS patiently explained, the “establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events.” (Perhaps, in light of climate realities and the frequency of such “events,” the government should work on a storm-adjustment methodology. And one for wild fires too, while they’re at it.)

Anyway, more important than the distorted headline for October was a cumulative 112,000 downward revision to September and August hiring. The latter month’s headline now shows a pedestrian 78,000 gain, while September’s blockbuster readout was adjusted to show a smaller, but still robust, 223,000 advance.

The three-month moving average is now just 106,000, although that’s obviously skewed by the October print.

Across industries, healthcare and government were the only bright spots, adding 52,000 and 40,000 jobs, respectively. Manufacturing shed 46,000 workers, but that’s just work stoppages (i.e., strikes). Construction added a few thousand workers and payrolls were mostly unchanged everywhere else.

The jobless was steady, at 4.1% (so, very low), and wage growth was warm again. AHE rose 0.4% MoM, ahead of estimates. On a 12-month basis, pay growth was 4%, in line.

If you’re not aware, there’s a BLS category for people unable to work due to weather. Here’s what it shows:

October’s print on that series was 512,000. That’s a “little” on the high side.

I’d argue the Fed shouldn’t read anything at all into these numbers, and they’d probably agree. The difference between me and them is that in the face of weather-related ambiguity they’re prepared to cut rates based, essentially, on one number: The headline NFP print, even when the good folks who tally that number are clear that it’s all but meaningless.

The rest of the data — including ADP and most of this week’s other top- and second-tier releases — argues for a pause at the November policy gathering. But between the “unchanged” read on jobs growth and the cool ECI readout for Q3, Jerome Powell has what he needs to justify a cut. Mission accomplished. Thank you hurricanes.