Donald Trump will command a majority of headlines in the days ahead, but a bevy of macro releases, including a US inflation update, will compete as best they can for attention.

Underlying consumer price growth across the world’s largest economy probably ran well north of 3% in October when measured against the same month a year ago, which is to say far too high and unchanged (if the Fed’s lucky) from the pace observed in September.

On a MoM basis, the core gauge likely rose 0.3%. Again. Recall that September’s MoM reading was the warmest since March. We’re not making any progress. Frankly, it feels like everyone stopped caring. Well, everyone except the voters.

The data evinces a reheat, but again, I get the sense markets are blasé about the risk. The Fed too. During his press conference last week, Jerome Powell exhibited very little in the way of concern about a prospective inflation pickup.

In fairness, Powell was distracted: Every other question was about Trump. But there are tie-ins aplenty with policy. MAGAnomics 2.0 could be inflationary on several fronts, so reporters weren’t wrong to press Powell on the potential ramifications of the election, nor were they off base or somehow out of bounds to ask if the Fed learned any lessons from the election about the extent to which Americans care far, far more about inflation than they do about full employment.

Powell generally refused to entertain questions about Trump, but his emphatic cadence regarding the Fed’s independence and calls for his own resignation suggested the Committee might be girding for a fight. A lot of folks in Trump’s orbit this go-around favor some kind of role for the executive (which is to say for Trump) in setting US monetary policy.

Although inflation’s very unlikely to re-accelerate to the harrowing levels observed in 2022, MAGAnomics isn’t disinflationary. “We’re all about growth,” as Trump recently put it. The Fed’s on board with that part. But there’s some magical thinking going on here: It’s not obvious how you square the circle between, on one hand, above-trend growth, tariffs, mass deportations and expansionary fiscal policy and, on the other, very low inflation.

Who knows, though. If a twice-impeached, four times-indicted, convicted felon who instigated an armed insurrection on the steps of the Capitol can win a second term as US president, anything’s possible. If all else fails, Trump can just staff the BLS with friendlies. Powell will speak this week (Thursday) along with a whole host of other Fed officials, including Chris Waller, John Williams and Adriana Kugler.

There are several other key data points due, including retail sales. Consensus is looking for a 0.3% gain there. The control group will be eyed for Q4 GDP tracking purposes.

Recall that September’s retail sales report (i.e., the last one) was very robust. All the evidence continues to suggest Americans — in aggregate — have the capacity to keep spending, and they will (keep spending) if you give them a reason to be happy.

On that latter point, it’s likely that consumer sentiment will turn up post-election for the same reason the small business mood will probably improve: Americans believe Trump’s rah-rah balderdash. If that gullibility manifests as spending and hiring, it can be self-fulfilling. Speaking of small business moods, NFIB’s due this week too, but you’ll probably have to wait until next month’s release for the big “Trump bump.”

Also on the docket in the US: A new Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, PPI and the New York Fed’s consumer survey, among other third- and fourth-tier releases.

As you parse the data and assess the outlook, do note: Trump’s president now. “Lame duck” is wholly insufficient to describe the nature of the limbo period between Election Day 2024 and Inauguration Day 2025. They might as well just hold Inauguration Day now. Nothing Joe Biden nor Kamala Harris says from now until they leave office means anything. You can tune them out, at least as it relates to the economy and markets.

Finally, I hope (and you should hope too) that Trump and his allies understand the market consequences for any actions that stray too far from “business as usual” in a democracy. Trump’s going to have a lot of rope to do what he wants in his second term. If he uses that rope to hang someone in a literal sense, it’s all over. The stocks, the bonds, the currency too probably. In short: He can’t kill any American citizens without risking “limit down.”

To be as clear as absolutely possible: I don’t think that’s going to happen, and certainly not in the context of any technocrats or bureaucrats. But I wouldn’t want to be a general on the record calling him a fascist right about now.