The last macro update of the week from the world’s largest economy beat on the headline, but came up well short where it counted under the hood, suggesting, perhaps, that the implacable American consumer pulled back at the beginning of Q4.
Honestly, I don’t believe that latter bit. Americans spend. It’s what they do. That, and eat themselves to death. I’ve seen exactly one real retrenchment in my lifetime: After Lehman. I suppose we can quibble about the definition of a “retrenchment,” but outside of a truly severe economic downturn, the only time Americans aren’t spending is if they’re asleep or if it’s time to plug their necks into a made-in-China flatscreen with a 30-foot USB cord so Fox can mainline star-spangled propaganda straight into the world’s most exploitable brains. (I’m laying it on thick, folks. Can you take it? Don’t be a snowflake!)
Anyway, headline retail sales rose 0.4% in October, Friday’s update showed. That was better than the 0.3% economists — whose salaries should be halved with the savings distributed to teachers, nurses, first responders and just anybody who makes a contribution to society — expected.
September’s headline was revised markedly higher (to 0.84% from 0.43%), while August’s reading was adjusted to show a slight decline. Now that we’re out of Q3, those revisions don’t really matter.
As the figure notes, the control group print was weak. The 0.1% decline compared very unfavorably with an estimated 0.3% gain. That’s the aggregate which matters for GDP tracking. I dare say the Fed wasn’t disappointed to see it cool off. Inflation’s still percolating.
Eight of 13 categories showed a gain in Friday’s release. Spending on restaurant food (that someone probably spit it, because we’re forcing them to work for less than a living wage with no benefits) and bar tabs (don’t worry, vodka sterilizes burger-spit) posted a solid 0.7% increase, so at least Americans were going out and enjoying the company of people they’ll have to impale with a flag pole during the second Civil War.
Do note: That control group print — the 0.1% decline mentioned and illustrated above — was the first drop since April. It’s only shown a decline three times this year. But, again, there’s very little in the way of evidence to suggest spending in America’s about to drop off any cliffs. The day Americans stop spending is the day the GOPers among you admit you might be bag-holders in a suicide cult. “The punch is good! Try some. It’s cherry.”



the world’s most exploitable brains.
The day Americans stop spending is the day the GOPers among you admit you might be bag-holders in a suicide cult. “The punch is good! Try some. It’s cherry.”
All cults die. The death is messy but usually it is after a recognition they have been lead astray. The pied piper can only get so many rats to jump off the cliff before the rats eat him. So what will it be this time that ends “The Donald” phenomenon? I cannot even speculate. Does this mean the end is nigh? Or is the second coming no mere aberration? I have not seen any study of what ends cults, but anecdotally some of them have ended as the former lieutenants become disillusioned en masse.
If all economists were laid end to end would they reach a conclusion?
What do you have when you have an economist covered up to his head in sand? Not enough sand.
Caveat- I am a trained economist. I was educated before economics became a “science”. What a crock. Fortunately I also was a trained commercial banker and risk credit administrator so I could earn a living.
Anyway, looking forward to the crash once folks realize that the clown they voted for is in fact a clown. The insane are now in charge of the asylum.
An economist and his friend are out for a walk. The friend spots something on the sidewalk and says, “Look, a hundred dollar bill!” The economist replies, “It’s counterfeit.” “How can you tell?” the friend asks. “If it were real, someone would have picked it up.”
I think it was Churchill who said that it is too bad that economists have two hands.
Thanks for the chuckles H