Underlying inflation in the US ran warm again in October, this week’s marquee macro release showed.

As expected, the core CPI gauge rose 0.3% last month from September, the third straight such gain, underscoring the difficulty of the so-called “last mile” in the Fed’s fight to wrestle inflation back down to 2%.

Unrounded, October’s core print was 0.28027%. Estimates ranged from 0.1% to 0.4%. As BMO’s Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman helpfully pointed out, “it’s been six months since an economist forecasted a +0.4% increase in core-CPI within the BBG survey, and eight months since at least five economists were in the +0.4% camp.” That gives you a sense of how the inflation zeitgeist has shifted in recent weeks.

There wasn’t anything disastrous about Wednesday’s release. Indeed, if it was remarkable it was probably for the extent to which it was bang-on consensus. Measured on a 12-month basis, the core gauge rose 3.3%, as expected. The headline all-items index rose 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, likewise in line with the median forecast from economists.

The (prospective) problem here’s plain: Core price growth has stopped decelerating and MAGAnomics has the potential to be inflationary — tariffs, deportations, unfunded tax cuts and so on.

The narrative that says economists were wrong about Trump’s run-it-hot economic policies in his first term isn’t, strictly speaking, accurate, or if it is, it fails to mention that the macro regime across the developed world was still defined and governed by myriad structural disinflationary forces back then, and the US economy was still living, a decade on, in the long shadow of the GFC. Trump’s inheriting an entirely different US economy and, more importantly, an entirely different global macro regime this time around. We’ll see how it goes.

Looking quickly under the hood of Wednesday’s CPI release, grocery prices barely rose from the prior month, and the 12-month pace was just 1.1%. Used car prices picked up 2.7% versus September, but we’re still in deflation there on a YoY basis. Apparel prices fell 1.5% MoM, erasing the prior month’s increase, transportation and medical services prices kept rising and the shelter gauge posted a 0.4% increase.

The jury’s still out on if and when the Fed can actually count on shelter prices moderating further. Obviously, the YoY pace has slowed sharply, but I’ve always harbored skepticism around what, at times, feels like a Pollyannaish view on the Committee about shelter prices.

As the figure shows, the monthly OER prints aren’t anywhere near “normal.” They just aren’t. At this point, I can only shrug at belabored attempts to explain this away or otherwise deny the reality of it. If somebody tells you the sky’s not blue, how many times can you correct them before you just say, “You know what? You’re right. It’s not blue.”

And by the way, if you want to know how Americans feel about inflation, and particularly the cost of housing, ask President-elect Kamala Harris. (See what I did there?)

As for the Fed, December’s little better than a coin toss for another cut at this juncture. A lot obviously hangs on the November jobs report, but as it stands, and in consideration of extreme uncertainty around the path of fiscal policy under Trump, it’s not a stretch (at all) to suggest they might leave rates on hold at next month’s policy gathering.

If they do, expect a backlash from Trump and his economic team, some of whom have called for Jerome Powell’s head. Figuratively speaking. Of course?.