“Gradual.” That’s still the “appropriate” way to approach the “removal of policy restraint.” So said
Author: therealheisenberg
The Fed Triggers A Vol Shock
I’m compelled, I suppose, to weigh in quickly on Wednesday’s post-Fed stock “crash” and the
Recalibration Complete
Wednesday’s rate cut from the Fed was “a closer call” compared to reductions in November
Fed Lifts Inflation Outlook, Sees Fewer 2025 Cuts
The Fed cut rates by 25bps on Wednesday, as expected, bringing the total amount of
US Housing At The Crossroads
US housing’s at a crossroads of sorts. Rates have seemingly stabilized, and may be biased
If A Bear Roars In The Woods
Albert Edwards sees trouble. Potentially. And also perpetually and perennially, by the way, which is
Wall Street’s Narrow Bull Run Creates ‘Unprecedented’ Juxtaposition
Congratulations: You’re witnessing history. I hesitate to employ such a vacuous phrase. You’re always witnessing
Recession Where? Not Here. Not Yet.
Recession? Who? Where? When? Not us. Not in America. And certainly not right now. At
Builders Bet On Red Tape Relief From Trump 2.0
There’s a builder in The White House! There’s a builder in The White House! Homebuilders
Igor Kirillov Had A Bad Day
Igor Kirillov was a Russian general of considerable standing and he just had a very
Profit Inflection Is More Soft Landing Evidence, Erstwhile Bear Says
Soft landing evidence in the US just keeps piling up. Or at least that’s one
Just Another Bubble Chart
Everyone loves a good “How expensive is the US stock market?” chart. And God knows
One More And Done?
On December 6, during remarks for an event hosted by the Missouri Bankers Association, Michelle
Flaming-Hot US Services Makes Mockery Of Powell’s ‘Restrictive’ Policy
The biggest part of the world’s largest economy expanded at the brisket pace since October
Buybacks Set To Break All-Time Record In 2024
Buybacks: Say what you will, but don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Although
‘Vastly Disappointing’ Retail Sales Underline China Deflation Threat
The Chinese consumption impulse registered an apathetic 3% for last month in key data out
Club Capital
Let’s say you’re an average American. A “normal economic person,” as Jerome Powell once put it.
And Now, The Fed
The Fed will almost surely cut rates at the final FOMC meeting of 2024. In
Animal Spirits Activated
The animal spirits are stirring. Maybe you noticed. If not, have a look at inflows
That’ll Be Enough, Mr. Yoon
South Korea’s Yoon Suk Yeol imagined he might be presiding over a two-week-old military junta
Investors Ride The Wave As US Stock Inflows Near Half-Trillion
US stocks: Folks are still buying them. ETFs and mutual funds dedicated to US equities
Another Narrow Market Lament
How many pseudo-laments for a narrow stock rally can you stand? A lot, I hope,
Hell Freezes Over
It was predictable: The “stimmy” rally in Chinese equities would be seen, in hindsight, as
The Consultant
Deep Eddy I opened the tear-away seal on the oversized FedEx mailer and shook
We Have Found A Bear
Stifel’s Barry Bannister has a heretical notion: US equities might fall in 2025. (“We have
Chicken-Egg Problem
Producer price growth in the US came in warm for November, data released Thursday showed.
Make Jobless Claims Relevant Again?
For most of the current cycle in the US, jobless claims were largely inert such
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