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The Fed Triggers A Vol Shock
I'm compelled, I suppose, to weigh in quickly on Wednesday's post-Fed stock "crash" and the accompan
Recent past history suggests vol will fall back quickly. But if for some reason it does not, after a week or so we might be treated to some selling from our friends in the fully-loaded up vol-driven models.
Otherwise, it’s back to parsing the nuances in the dot plots.
So, I fail to understand something here (many things, but limiting self to one thing today).
For FOMC to cause a big vol shock, it had to be a big surprise – right? How was it a big surprise that FOMC would deliver “25 then slow/watch and think about 50 more next year”? I don’t think it could have been or was.
Are we in a situation where a little surprise results in a big vol shock? Basically we’re just way too geared up?
is on a bar stool at the kitchen island in the great room of a half-finished house … Sounds just enough uncomfortable to sharpen your mind.
I detect presence of a bond vigilante. if the government does end up having to borrow more or if the economy begins to stall and the government decides to juice it with stimulus, those bond vigilantes could decide to saddle up.
President-elect Elon Musk also blew up the Congressional spending bill. Nothing like threatening a shutdown and ostensibly a US default to chill your risk appetite. Nothing like uncertainty to bid vols.
I love the fact that Trump hasn’t even been sworn in yet and Republicans are already flailing. What’s the over/under on the number of Mooches before Trump gets tired of another social media blowhard with a larger platform and infinitely more money taking away the spotlight and trying to govern for him?
What Powell said was not that shocking. To paraphrase, growth is a bit better than we expected and inflation is a bit higher. Employment is mixed. So we don’t think we need to cut as quickly as previously and possibly not as much.
The reality is too many folks were too bullish and got caught offsides.
This is not a crisis. Problems overseas are bigger, China, South Korea, Brazil, France, Germany, New Zeeland are all having troubles.
We will have ours starting January 20th….
Maybe folks are starting to figure out that the inmates will be running the asylum….
I looked at the daily volumes on a few of the individual stocks that are in my portfolio- about 15% higher than the average trading volumes over the last 3 months. So higher, but not by an alarming amount. Much ado about nothing?
Can’t wait to see pictures of your new home. I still recall the photo, captured the “old fashioned way” -with a camera, that you posted of the view from the kitchen window of your Island home. Such a beautiful view, so I know you have ‘good taste’ in real estate.
jawboning cars and Mars guy didn’t help