“Gradual.” That’s still the “appropriate” way to approach the “removal of policy restraint.”
So said the Bank of England on Thursday, when policymakers voted 6-3 to keep Bank rate on hold. All three dissents wanted a third cut.
The macro outlook’s uncertain in the UK, which puts the country in good company: The macro outlook’s uncertain everywhere, including and especially in the US.
As a quick reminder, 12-month CPI in the UK rebounded to 2.6% in November from a low of 1.7% in September, core’s running 3.5% and services inflation 5%.
The BoE conceded Thursday that the headline measure’s likely to drift higher in the near-term and said household inflation expectations, despite having “largely normalized,” have risen anew on some surveys.
The biggest concern, as ever, is what one might call “internal” inflation, where that means the interplay of wages and prices, particularly in the services sector, where price growth’s still running more than double the bank’s target.
An update on wages this week came in far warmer than expected, with regular pay growth for the August to October period rising to 5.2%. It was the first increase in a year, and it won a mention in Thursday’s policy statement. That series, the BoE said, is “volatile.” Other metrics suggest average pay growth next year will be between 3% to 4%, but there’s “significant uncertainty around developments in the labor market,” the bank remarked.
If pay growth really is running north of 5%, then real wages are increasing at a pretty healthy clip, which in turn should support spending, particularly on services where, again, price growth’s far too brisk. That said, and as the BoE also noted on Thursday, “most indicators of UK near-term [economic] activity have declined.”
In any event, all of that netted on Thursday to what I suppose one might call a “dovish hold.” Certainly, two of the three dissents were a surprise, but Andrew Bailey was adamant that he can’t say when or by how much rates will be cut next year. The BoE’s statement retained the language pledging to keep policy restrictive “for sufficiently long” such that upside risks to inflation “dissipate further.” (Remember: The BoE operates with a single-mandate.)
If you’re wondering what the doves think, the minutes recounted their rationale and narrative. “In the medium-term, a continued stance that was very restrictive risked deviating unsustainably from the 2% inflation target and opening an unduly large output gap,” the dissenters reckoned.


