A two-week jump in initial US jobless claims in and around the Thanksgiving holiday was another false start.

Or so it seemed after Thursday’s update, which found the initial filers headline dropping 22,000, erasing most of the spike seen over the prior two weeks.

At just 220,000, the print was 10,000 below consensus, and suggests, yet again, that the US labor market isn’t close to any sort of cliff edge.

Do note: This release covered NFP survey week for December.

Continuing claims for the prior week (i.e., the week to December 7) were 1.874 million. That too was fewer than expected.

Meanwhile, the third and final read on US GDP for Q3 found the headline growth pace marked up to 3.1%, a meaningful upside revision from the 2.8% pace penciled in for the first and second estimates.

As you might imagine, the upside was attributable to the consumption component, which was revised to show a 3.7% pace.

The core PCE index was likewise revised higher to 2.2%. Both of those readouts (the core PCE index and personal consumption) now match the advance read from late October (both were revised lower in the second estimate).

That’s all consistent with a services-heavy economy where consumers are still spending freely. When taken with the drop in claims, the narrative around the US economy remains a tale of “resilient” consumers and a very sturdy labor market.

Needless to say, these releases support the notion that the Fed will indeed slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025 (if they cut at all), as communicated by the new SEP and by Jerome Powell during this week’s post-FOMC press conference.